Marathon Petroleum (Germany) Market Value
| MPN Stock | 146.70 2.84 1.90% |
| Symbol | Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Marathon Petroleum's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Marathon Petroleum.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Marathon Petroleum on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Marathon Petroleum or generate 0.0% return on investment in Marathon Petroleum over 30 days. Marathon Petroleum is related to or competes with Jacquet Metal, Zijin Mining, MCEWEN MINING, SALESFORCE INC, BOS BETTER, Western Copper, and CarsalesCom. More
Marathon Petroleum Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Marathon Petroleum's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Marathon Petroleum upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.33 |
Marathon Petroleum Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Marathon Petroleum's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Marathon Petroleum's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Marathon Petroleum historical prices to predict the future Marathon Petroleum's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marathon Petroleum Backtested Returns
Marathon Petroleum has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0197, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0197% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Marathon Petroleum exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Marathon Petroleum's Standard Deviation of 2.12, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Mean Deviation of 1.44 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.87, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Marathon Petroleum returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Marathon Petroleum is expected to follow. At this point, Marathon Petroleum has a negative expected return of -0.042%. Please make sure to verify Marathon Petroleum's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and price action indicator , to decide if Marathon Petroleum performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.05 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Marathon Petroleum has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Marathon Petroleum time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Marathon Petroleum price movement. The serial correlation of -0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current Marathon Petroleum price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.05 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.47 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.04 |
Marathon Petroleum lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Marathon Petroleum stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Marathon Petroleum's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Marathon Petroleum returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Marathon Petroleum has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Marathon Petroleum regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Marathon Petroleum stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Marathon Petroleum stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Marathon Petroleum stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Marathon Petroleum Lagged Returns
When evaluating Marathon Petroleum's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Marathon Petroleum stock have on its future price. Marathon Petroleum autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Marathon Petroleum autocorrelation shows the relationship between Marathon Petroleum stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Marathon Petroleum.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Marathon Stock Analysis
When running Marathon Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.