National Capital Bank Stock Market Value
| NACB Stock | USD 300.00 31.00 11.52% |
| Symbol | National |
National Capital 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Capital's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Capital.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Capital on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Capital Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Capital over 30 days. National Capital is related to or competes with Delhi Bank, CCSB Financial, Bank of Utica, BEO Bancorp, First Community, Lewis Clark, and Bank of Idaho Holding. National Capital Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding for The National Capital Bank of Washington that provides va... More
National Capital Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Capital's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Capital Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.33 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1905 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.67 |
National Capital Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Capital's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Capital's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Capital historical prices to predict the future National Capital's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1816 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7753 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2417 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1248 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 11.81 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Capital Bank Backtested Returns
National Capital appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. National Capital Bank has Sharpe Ratio of 0.22, which conveys that the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing National Capital's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.79% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise National Capital's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1816, mean deviation of 2.08, and Downside Deviation of 5.33 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Capital holds a performance score of 17. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0663, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Capital's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Capital is expected to be smaller as well. Please check National Capital's downside variance, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and expected short fall , to make a quick decision on whether National Capital's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.77 |
Good predictability
National Capital Bank has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Capital time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Capital Bank price movement. The serial correlation of 0.77 indicates that around 77.0% of current National Capital price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.77 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.93 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 881.05 |
National Capital Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Capital pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Capital's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Capital returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Capital has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Capital regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Capital pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Capital pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Capital pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Capital Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Capital's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Capital pink sheet have on its future price. National Capital autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Capital autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Capital pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Capital Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in National Pink Sheet
National Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Capital security.