Novina SA (Poland) Market Value
| NOV Stock | 1.16 0.05 4.50% |
| Symbol | Novina |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novina SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novina SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novina SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Novina SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novina SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novina SA.
| 05/30/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novina SA on May 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novina SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novina SA over 180 days. Novina SA is related to or competes with Play2Chill, MCI Management, Igoria Trade, Noble Financials, Biztech Konsulting, New Tech, and BNP Paribas. More
Novina SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novina SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novina SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.91 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0084 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.98 |
Novina SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novina SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novina SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novina SA historical prices to predict the future Novina SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.046 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3313 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0089 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novina SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novina SA Backtested Returns
Currently, Novina SA is dangerous. Novina SA has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0493, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0493% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Novina SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Novina SA's Mean Deviation of 2.22, downside deviation of 2.91, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.046 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Novina SA has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -1.57, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novina SA are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Novina SA is expected to outperform it. Novina SA right now secures a risk of 2.85%. Please verify Novina SA downside variance, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to decide if Novina SA will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
Novina SA has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novina SA time series from 30th of May 2024 to 28th of August 2024 and 28th of August 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novina SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Novina SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Novina SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novina SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novina SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novina SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novina SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novina SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novina SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novina SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novina SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novina SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novina SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novina SA stock have on its future price. Novina SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novina SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novina SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novina SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Novina SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Novina SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Novina SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Novina Stock
| 0.55 | PKN | Polski Koncern Naftowy | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | BNP | BNP Paribas Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | SPL | Santander Bank Polska | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | PZU | Powszechny Zaklad | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | MBK | mBank SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Novina SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Novina SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Novina SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Novina SA to buy it.
The correlation of Novina SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Novina SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Novina SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Novina SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Novina Stock Analysis
When running Novina SA's price analysis, check to measure Novina SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novina SA is operating at the current time. Most of Novina SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novina SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novina SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novina SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.