Origin Energy (Australia) Market Value
| ORG Stock | 10.69 0.07 0.65% |
| Symbol | Origin |
Origin Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Origin Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Origin Energy.
| 09/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Origin Energy on September 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Origin Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Origin Energy over 60 days. Origin Energy is related to or competes with Qbe Insurance, Perpetual Credit, Magellan Financial, Commonwealth Bank, and Readytech Holdings. Origin Energy is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
Origin Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Origin Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Origin Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0308 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.02 |
Origin Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Origin Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Origin Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Origin Energy historical prices to predict the future Origin Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1171 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1562 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0298 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (10.09) |
Origin Energy Backtested Returns
Currently, Origin Energy is not too volatile. Origin Energy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.14, which implies the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Origin Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Origin Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1171, coefficient of variation of 670.32, and Semi Deviation of 0.9006 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. Origin Energy has a performance score of 11 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of -0.0153, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Origin Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Origin Energy is likely to outperform the market. Origin Energy right now holds a risk of 1.11%. Please check Origin Energy coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Origin Energy will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.93 |
Near perfect reversele predictability
Origin Energy has near perfect reversele predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Origin Energy time series from 28th of September 2024 to 28th of October 2024 and 28th of October 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Origin Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Origin Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.21 |
Origin Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Origin Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Origin Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Origin Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Origin Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Origin Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Origin Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Origin Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Origin Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Origin Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Origin Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Origin Energy stock have on its future price. Origin Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Origin Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Origin Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Origin Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis
When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.