Payson Total Return Fund Market Value
| PBFDX Fund | USD 38.39 0.20 0.52% |
| Symbol | Payson |
Payson Total 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Payson Total's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Payson Total.
| 10/16/2024 |
| 01/09/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Payson Total on October 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Payson Total Return or generate 0.0% return on investment in Payson Total over 450 days. Payson Total is related to or competes with Cambiar Opportunity, Hennessy Cornerstone, Ab Select, Matthews Asia, Small Pany, Small Pany, and Wireless Portfolio. The fund invests primarily in common stock and convertible securities of large and mid capitalization domestic companies More
Payson Total Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Payson Total's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Payson Total Return upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0175 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.99) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.84 |
Payson Total Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Payson Total's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Payson Total's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Payson Total historical prices to predict the future Payson Total's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0744 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.015 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0168 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0882 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Payson Total's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Payson Total Return Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Payson Mutual Fund to be very steady. Payson Total Return maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the entity had a 0.13 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Payson Total Return, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Payson Total's Coefficient Of Variation of 1042.06, semi deviation of 0.9415, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0744 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. The fund holds a Beta of 1.05, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Payson Total returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Payson Total is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
Payson Total Return has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Payson Total time series from 16th of October 2024 to 29th of May 2025 and 29th of May 2025 to 9th of January 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Payson Total Return price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Payson Total price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.83 |
Payson Total Return lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Payson Total mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Payson Total's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Payson Total returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Payson Total has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Payson Total regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Payson Total mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Payson Total mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Payson Total mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Payson Total Lagged Returns
When evaluating Payson Total's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Payson Total mutual fund have on its future price. Payson Total autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Payson Total autocorrelation shows the relationship between Payson Total mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Payson Total Return.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Payson Mutual Fund
Payson Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Payson Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Payson with respect to the benefits of owning Payson Total security.
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