Provident Financial (Germany) Market Value
| PQ3 Stock | EUR 19.90 0.10 0.50% |
| Symbol | Provident |
Provident Financial 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Provident Financial's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Provident Financial.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Provident Financial on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Provident Financial Services or generate 0.0% return on investment in Provident Financial over 30 days. Provident Financial is related to or competes with Corporate Travel, BURLINGTON STORES, Ross Stores, Fast Retailing, and Jupiter Fund. Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking serv... More
Provident Financial Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Provident Financial's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Provident Financial Services upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0604 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.11 |
Provident Financial Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Provident Financial's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Provident Financial's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Provident Financial historical prices to predict the future Provident Financial's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0997 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1025 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0835 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2092 |
Provident Financial Backtested Returns
Provident Financial appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Provident Financial maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Provident Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Provident Financial's Coefficient Of Variation of 820.77, risk adjusted performance of 0.0997, and Semi Deviation of 1.31 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Provident Financial holds a performance score of 9. The company holds a Beta of 1.26, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Provident Financial will likely underperform. Please check Provident Financial's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Provident Financial's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
Provident Financial Services has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Provident Financial time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Provident Financial price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Provident Financial price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.13 |
Provident Financial lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Provident Financial stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Provident Financial's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Provident Financial returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Provident Financial has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Provident Financial regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Provident Financial stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Provident Financial stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Provident Financial stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Provident Financial Lagged Returns
When evaluating Provident Financial's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Provident Financial stock have on its future price. Provident Financial autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Provident Financial autocorrelation shows the relationship between Provident Financial stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Provident Financial Services.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Provident Stock
When determining whether Provident Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Provident Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Provident Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Provident Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Provident Financial Correlation, Provident Financial Volatility and Provident Financial Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Provident Financial. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Provident Financial technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.