UPM-Kymmene Oyj (Germany) Market Value
| RPL Stock | EUR 25.27 0.10 0.39% |
| Symbol | UPM-Kymmene |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UPM-Kymmene Oyj's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UPM-Kymmene Oyj.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UPM-Kymmene Oyj on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UPM Kymmene Oyj or generate 0.0% return on investment in UPM-Kymmene Oyj over 30 days. UPM-Kymmene Oyj is related to or competes with STORA ENSO, Stora Enso, Suzano SA, Oji Holdings, and Nine Dragons. It operates through UPM Biorefining, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywo... More
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UPM-Kymmene Oyj's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UPM Kymmene Oyj upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.49 |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UPM-Kymmene Oyj's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UPM-Kymmene Oyj historical prices to predict the future UPM-Kymmene Oyj's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.88) |
UPM Kymmene Oyj Backtested Returns
UPM Kymmene Oyj owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.18, which indicates the firm had a -0.18% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. UPM Kymmene Oyj exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate UPM-Kymmene Oyj's risk adjusted performance of (0.12), and Variance of 2.09 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.27, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding UPM-Kymmene Oyj is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, UPM Kymmene Oyj has a negative expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to validate UPM-Kymmene Oyj's kurtosis, day typical price, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if UPM Kymmene Oyj performance from the past will be repeated at some future point.
Auto-correlation | 0.38 |
Below average predictability
UPM Kymmene Oyj has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UPM-Kymmene Oyj time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UPM Kymmene Oyj price movement. The serial correlation of 0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current UPM-Kymmene Oyj price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.38 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
UPM Kymmene Oyj lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UPM-Kymmene Oyj's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UPM-Kymmene Oyj returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UPM-Kymmene Oyj has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Lagged Returns
When evaluating UPM-Kymmene Oyj's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock have on its future price. UPM-Kymmene Oyj autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UPM-Kymmene Oyj autocorrelation shows the relationship between UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UPM Kymmene Oyj.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in UPM-Kymmene Stock
UPM-Kymmene Oyj financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPM-Kymmene Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPM-Kymmene with respect to the benefits of owning UPM-Kymmene Oyj security.