Sasol (South Africa) Market Value
| SOL Stock | 9,457 334.00 3.41% |
| Symbol | Sasol |
Sasol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Sasol's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Sasol.
| 05/30/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Sasol on May 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Sasol or generate 0.0% return on investment in Sasol over 180 days. Sasol is related to or competes with Standard Bank, ABSA Bank, Trematon Capital, Life Healthcare, and Astoria Investments. More
Sasol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Sasol's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Sasol upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.28) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.64 |
Sasol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Sasol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Sasol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Sasol historical prices to predict the future Sasol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.17) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.63) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.79 |
Sasol Backtested Returns
Sasol owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.22, which indicates the firm had a -0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Sasol exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Sasol's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.17), variance of 7.61, and Coefficient Of Variation of (432.86) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.17, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Sasol are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Sasol is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Sasol has a negative expected return of -0.6%. Please make sure to validate Sasol's skewness, rate of daily change, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and day typical price , to decide if Sasol performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.49 |
Modest reverse predictability
Sasol has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Sasol time series from 30th of May 2024 to 28th of August 2024 and 28th of August 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Sasol price movement. The serial correlation of -0.49 indicates that about 49.0% of current Sasol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.49 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.7 M |
Sasol lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Sasol stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Sasol's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Sasol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Sasol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Sasol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Sasol stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Sasol stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Sasol stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Sasol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Sasol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Sasol stock have on its future price. Sasol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Sasol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Sasol stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Sasol.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Sasol Stock
When determining whether Sasol is a strong investment it is important to analyze Sasol's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Sasol's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Sasol Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Sasol Correlation, Sasol Volatility and Sasol Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Sasol. For information on how to trade Sasol Stock refer to our How to Trade Sasol Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Sasol technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.