Serco (UK) Market Value
| SRP Stock | 157.00 1.30 0.83% |
| Symbol | Serco |
Serco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Serco's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Serco.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Serco on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Serco Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Serco over 60 days. Serco is related to or competes with Spotify Technology, X FAB, Auction Technology, Microchip Technology, CleanTech Lithium, and Playtech Plc. Serco is entity of United Kingdom. It is traded as Stock on LSE exchange. More
Serco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Serco's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Serco Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.25 |
Serco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Serco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Serco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Serco historical prices to predict the future Serco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.64) |
Serco Group Backtested Returns
Serco Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.1, which indicates the firm had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Serco Group exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Serco's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07), coefficient of variation of (998.39), and Variance of 2.17 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.25, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Serco's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Serco is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Serco Group has a negative expected return of -0.15%. Please make sure to validate Serco's daily balance of power, and the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if Serco Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.54 |
Good reverse predictability
Serco Group has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Serco time series from 29th of September 2024 to 29th of October 2024 and 29th of October 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Serco Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Serco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 89.5 |
Serco Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Serco stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Serco's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Serco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Serco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Serco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Serco stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Serco stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Serco stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Serco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Serco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Serco stock have on its future price. Serco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Serco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Serco stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Serco Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Serco Stock
Serco financial ratios help investors to determine whether Serco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Serco with respect to the benefits of owning Serco security.