Tumosan (Turkey) Market Value
| TMSN Stock | TRY 113.60 2.40 2.07% |
| Symbol | Tumosan |
Tumosan 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tumosan's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tumosan.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tumosan on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tumosan Motor ve or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tumosan over 30 days. Tumosan is related to or competes with Akcansa Cimento, E Data, Koza Anadolu, Turkiye Kalkinma, Sekerbank TAS, and Cuhadaroglu Metal. Tmosan Motor ve Traktr Sanayi A.S. produces, markets, and sells diesel engines and tractors in Turkey and internationall... More
Tumosan Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tumosan's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tumosan Motor ve upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.96) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.42 |
Tumosan Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tumosan's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tumosan's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tumosan historical prices to predict the future Tumosan's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0062 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.40) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2962 |
Tumosan Motor ve Backtested Returns
Tumosan Motor ve owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0105, which indicates the firm had a -0.0105% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Tumosan Motor ve exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Tumosan's Coefficient Of Variation of (88,340), risk adjusted performance of 0.0062, and Variance of 6.63 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0436, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Tumosan are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Tumosan is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Tumosan Motor ve has a negative expected return of -0.0269%. Please make sure to validate Tumosan's value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Tumosan Motor ve performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Tumosan Motor ve has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tumosan time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tumosan Motor ve price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Tumosan price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.43 |
Tumosan Motor ve lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tumosan stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tumosan's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tumosan returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tumosan has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tumosan regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tumosan stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tumosan stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tumosan stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tumosan Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tumosan's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tumosan stock have on its future price. Tumosan autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tumosan autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tumosan stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tumosan Motor ve.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Tumosan Stock Analysis
When running Tumosan's price analysis, check to measure Tumosan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tumosan is operating at the current time. Most of Tumosan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tumosan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tumosan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tumosan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.