Guggenheim Directional Allocation Fund Market Value
| TVRCX Fund | USD 17.58 0.03 0.17% |
| Symbol | Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Directional 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Directional's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Directional.
| 12/05/2022 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guggenheim Directional on December 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Directional Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Directional over 720 days. Guggenheim Directional is related to or competes with Eic Value, Archer Balanced, Qs Growth, Qs Us, Omni Small-cap, and T Rowe. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus the amount of borrowings for investment purposes, in securi... More
Guggenheim Directional Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Directional's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Directional Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.779 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.14 |
Guggenheim Directional Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Directional's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Directional's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Directional historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Directional's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1346 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0238 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0035 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1518 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Directional's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Directional Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Guggenheim Mutual Fund to be very steady. Guggenheim Directional holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.17, which attests that the entity had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Guggenheim Directional, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guggenheim Directional's Downside Deviation of 0.779, market risk adjusted performance of 0.1618, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1346 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.77, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Guggenheim Directional's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guggenheim Directional is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.18 |
Very weak predictability
Guggenheim Directional Allocation has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Directional time series from 5th of December 2022 to 30th of November 2023 and 30th of November 2023 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Directional price movement. The serial correlation of 0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current Guggenheim Directional price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.18 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.04 |
Guggenheim Directional lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Directional mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Directional's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Directional returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Directional has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Directional regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Directional mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Directional mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Directional mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Directional Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guggenheim Directional's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Directional mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Directional autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Directional autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Directional mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Directional Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Guggenheim Mutual Fund
Guggenheim Directional financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guggenheim Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guggenheim with respect to the benefits of owning Guggenheim Directional security.
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