Ultra Fund Investor Fund Market Value
| TWCUX Fund | USD 95.52 0.15 0.16% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Fund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Fund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Fund.
| 10/22/2024 |
| 11/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Fund on October 22, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Fund Investor or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Fund over 30 days. Ultra Fund is related to or competes with Growth Fund, Select Fund, International Growth, Heritage Fund, and Janus Global. The fund normally invests in stocks of companies that the adviser believes will increase in value over time More
Ultra Fund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Fund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Fund Investor upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.71 |
Ultra Fund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Fund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Fund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Fund historical prices to predict the future Ultra Fund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0665 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0923 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.81) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Fund Investor Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Ultra Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ultra Fund Investor owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0851, which indicates the fund had a 0.0851% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ultra Fund Investor, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Ultra Fund's Semi Deviation of 1.23, risk adjusted performance of 0.0665, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1189.94 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0935%. The entity has a beta of -0.1, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ultra Fund are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ultra Fund is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.54 |
Modest predictability
Ultra Fund Investor has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Fund time series from 22nd of October 2024 to 6th of November 2024 and 6th of November 2024 to 21st of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Fund Investor price movement. The serial correlation of 0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Ultra Fund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.89 |
Ultra Fund Investor lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Fund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Fund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Fund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Fund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Fund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Fund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Fund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Fund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Fund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Fund mutual fund have on its future price. Ultra Fund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Fund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Fund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Fund Investor.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ultra Mutual Fund
Ultra Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultra Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultra with respect to the benefits of owning Ultra Fund security.
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