Ultimate Games (Poland) Market Value
| ULG Stock | 8.78 0.06 0.68% |
| Symbol | Ultimate |
Ultimate Games 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultimate Games' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultimate Games.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultimate Games on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultimate Games SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultimate Games over 60 days. Ultimate Games is related to or competes with Gaming Factory, CI Games, Monnari Trade, MCI Management, GreenX Metals, and Movie Games. More
Ultimate Games Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultimate Games' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultimate Games SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.26) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.51 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.3 |
Ultimate Games Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultimate Games' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultimate Games' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultimate Games historical prices to predict the future Ultimate Games' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.59) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.42) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultimate Games' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultimate Games SA Backtested Returns
Ultimate Games SA owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.21, which indicates the firm had a -0.21% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ultimate Games SA exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Ultimate Games' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13), coefficient of variation of (545.23), and Variance of 3.03 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0444, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ultimate Games' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ultimate Games is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ultimate Games SA has a negative expected return of -0.36%. Please make sure to validate Ultimate Games' value at risk, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and day typical price , to decide if Ultimate Games SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Ultimate Games SA has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultimate Games time series from 29th of September 2024 to 29th of October 2024 and 29th of October 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultimate Games SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Ultimate Games price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Ultimate Games SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultimate Games stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultimate Games' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultimate Games returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultimate Games has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultimate Games regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultimate Games stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultimate Games stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultimate Games stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultimate Games Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultimate Games' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultimate Games stock have on its future price. Ultimate Games autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultimate Games autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultimate Games stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultimate Games SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Ultimate Games
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ultimate Games position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ultimate Games will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ultimate Stock
Moving against Ultimate Stock
| 0.8 | UCG | UniCredit SpA | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | VVD | Vivid Games SA | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | ALG | All In Games | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ultimate Games could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ultimate Games when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ultimate Games - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ultimate Games SA to buy it.
The correlation of Ultimate Games is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ultimate Games moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ultimate Games SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ultimate Games can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Ultimate Stock Analysis
When running Ultimate Games' price analysis, check to measure Ultimate Games' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultimate Games is operating at the current time. Most of Ultimate Games' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultimate Games' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultimate Games' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultimate Games to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.