Varta AG (Germany) Market Value
| VAR1 Stock | EUR 2.31 0.22 10.53% |
| Symbol | Varta |
Varta AG 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Varta AG's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Varta AG.
| 12/05/2022 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Varta AG on December 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Varta AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Varta AG over 720 days. Varta AG is related to or competes with REVO INSURANCE, ZURICH INSURANCE, Hanover Insurance, CapitaLand Investment, SEI INVESTMENTS, Goosehead Insurance, and Reinsurance Group. Varta AG, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells microbatteries, household batteries, and e... More
Varta AG Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Varta AG's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Varta AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 9.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0696 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 118.16 | |||
| Value At Risk | (13.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 28.24 |
Varta AG Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Varta AG's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Varta AG's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Varta AG historical prices to predict the future Varta AG's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0697 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.17) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1091 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2551 |
Varta AG Backtested Returns
Varta AG is abnormally volatile given 3 months investment horizon. Varta AG owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0801, which indicates the firm had a 0.0801% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate data for thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.17% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Varta AG Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0697, coefficient of variation of 1273.44, and Semi Deviation of 8.39 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Varta AG holds a performance score of 6 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The entity has a beta of 4.47, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Varta AG will likely underperform. Use Varta AG value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to analyze future returns on Varta AG.
Auto-correlation | 0.66 |
Good predictability
Varta AG has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Varta AG time series from 5th of December 2022 to 30th of November 2023 and 30th of November 2023 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Varta AG price movement. The serial correlation of 0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current Varta AG price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 42.25 |
Varta AG lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Varta AG stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Varta AG's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Varta AG returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Varta AG has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Varta AG regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Varta AG stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Varta AG stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Varta AG stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Varta AG Lagged Returns
When evaluating Varta AG's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Varta AG stock have on its future price. Varta AG autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Varta AG autocorrelation shows the relationship between Varta AG stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Varta AG.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Varta Stock
Varta AG financial ratios help investors to determine whether Varta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Varta with respect to the benefits of owning Varta AG security.