Valneva SE (Austria) Market Value
| VLA Stock | EUR 2.02 0.07 3.35% |
| Symbol | Valneva |
Valneva SE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Valneva SE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Valneva SE.
| 12/05/2022 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Valneva SE on December 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Valneva SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in Valneva SE over 720 days. Valneva SE is related to or competes with BKS Bank, UNIQA Insurance, CNH Industrial, and Vienna Insurance. Valneva SE, a biotech company, engages in developing and commercializing vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet nee... More
Valneva SE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Valneva SE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Valneva SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.73 |
Valneva SE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Valneva SE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Valneva SE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Valneva SE historical prices to predict the future Valneva SE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.19) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.76) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.20) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (12.48) |
Valneva SE Backtested Returns
Valneva SE owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.27, which indicates the firm had a -0.27% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Valneva SE exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Valneva SE's Variance of 8.06, risk adjusted performance of (0.19), and Coefficient Of Variation of (381.05) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0605, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Valneva SE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Valneva SE is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Valneva SE has a negative expected return of -0.77%. Please make sure to validate Valneva SE's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and market facilitation index , to decide if Valneva SE performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
Valneva SE has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Valneva SE time series from 5th of December 2022 to 30th of November 2023 and 30th of November 2023 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Valneva SE price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Valneva SE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.48 |
Valneva SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Valneva SE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Valneva SE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Valneva SE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Valneva SE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Valneva SE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Valneva SE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Valneva SE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Valneva SE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Valneva SE Lagged Returns
When evaluating Valneva SE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Valneva SE stock have on its future price. Valneva SE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Valneva SE autocorrelation shows the relationship between Valneva SE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Valneva SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Valneva Stock
Valneva SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Valneva Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Valneva with respect to the benefits of owning Valneva SE security.