Vivid Games (Poland) Market Value
| VVD Stock | 0.56 0.02 3.45% |
| Symbol | Vivid |
Vivid Games 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vivid Games' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vivid Games.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vivid Games on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vivid Games SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vivid Games over 30 days. Vivid Games is related to or competes with Creotech Instruments, ING Bank, Echo Investment, PLAYWAY SA, Carlson Investments, BNP Paribas, and Play2Chill. More
Vivid Games Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vivid Games' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vivid Games SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.26 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0783 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 63.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.49) | |||
| Potential Upside | 14.71 |
Vivid Games Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vivid Games' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vivid Games' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vivid Games historical prices to predict the future Vivid Games' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0793 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6677 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.62) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.176 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5125 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivid Games' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vivid Games SA Backtested Returns
Vivid Games appears to be out of control, given 3 months investment horizon. Vivid Games SA owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0938, which indicates the firm had a 0.0938% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Vivid Games' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.92% is justified by implied risk. Please review Vivid Games' Coefficient Of Variation of 1090.75, risk adjusted performance of 0.0793, and Semi Deviation of 3.1 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Vivid Games holds a performance score of 7. The entity has a beta of 1.7, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Vivid Games will likely underperform. Please check Vivid Games' downside variance and the relationship between the kurtosis and period momentum indicator , to make a quick decision on whether Vivid Games' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.86 |
Very good predictability
Vivid Games SA has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vivid Games time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vivid Games SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Vivid Games price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Vivid Games SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vivid Games stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vivid Games' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vivid Games returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vivid Games has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vivid Games regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vivid Games stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vivid Games stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vivid Games stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vivid Games Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vivid Games' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vivid Games stock have on its future price. Vivid Games autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vivid Games autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vivid Games stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vivid Games SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Vivid Games
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vivid Games position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vivid Games will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Vivid Stock
| 0.76 | ULG | Ultimate Games SA | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | PKN | Polski Koncern Naftowy | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | TEN | TEN SQUARE GAMES | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | MOV | Movie Games SA | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | CDR | CD PROJEKT SA Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vivid Games could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vivid Games when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vivid Games - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vivid Games SA to buy it.
The correlation of Vivid Games is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vivid Games moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vivid Games SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vivid Games can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Vivid Stock Analysis
When running Vivid Games' price analysis, check to measure Vivid Games' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivid Games is operating at the current time. Most of Vivid Games' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivid Games' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivid Games' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivid Games to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.