West Fraser Timber Stock Market Value
| WFG Stock | CAD 138.40 0.80 0.57% |
| Symbol | West |
West Fraser 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to West Fraser's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of West Fraser.
| 08/29/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in West Fraser on August 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding West Fraser Timber or generate 0.0% return on investment in West Fraser over 90 days. West Fraser is related to or competes with Interfor Corp, Canfor, Stella Jones, and Western Forest. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engine... More
West Fraser Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure West Fraser's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess West Fraser Timber upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0687 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.6 |
West Fraser Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for West Fraser's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as West Fraser's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use West Fraser historical prices to predict the future West Fraser's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1181 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1938 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0741 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7004 |
West Fraser Timber Backtested Returns
West Fraser appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. West Fraser Timber shows Sharpe Ratio of 0.15, which attests that the company had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for West Fraser Timber, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please utilize West Fraser's Mean Deviation of 1.22, downside deviation of 1.53, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.7104 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, West Fraser holds a performance score of 11. The firm maintains a market beta of 0.33, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, West Fraser's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding West Fraser is expected to be smaller as well. Please check West Fraser's skewness, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether West Fraser's historical returns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.01 |
Virtually no predictability
West Fraser Timber has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between West Fraser time series from 29th of August 2024 to 13th of October 2024 and 13th of October 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of West Fraser Timber price movement. The serial correlation of 0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current West Fraser price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.24 |
West Fraser Timber lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is West Fraser stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting West Fraser's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of West Fraser returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that West Fraser has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
West Fraser regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If West Fraser stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if West Fraser stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in West Fraser stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
West Fraser Lagged Returns
When evaluating West Fraser's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of West Fraser stock have on its future price. West Fraser autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, West Fraser autocorrelation shows the relationship between West Fraser stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in West Fraser Timber.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with West Fraser
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if West Fraser position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in West Fraser will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with West Stock
Moving against West Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to West Fraser could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace West Fraser when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back West Fraser - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling West Fraser Timber to buy it.
The correlation of West Fraser is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as West Fraser moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if West Fraser Timber moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for West Fraser can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out West Fraser Correlation, West Fraser Volatility and West Fraser Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on West Fraser. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
West Fraser technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.