Ambarella Stock Performance

AMBA Stock  USD 67.19  1.88  2.72%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.06, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Ambarella will likely underperform. At this point, Ambarella has a negative expected return of -0.32%. Please make sure to confirm Ambarella's total risk alpha, potential upside, and the relationship between the standard deviation and maximum drawdown , to decide if Ambarella performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Ambarella has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the Stock's fundamental drivers remain somewhat strong which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long term up-swing for the company investors. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow144.9 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-40.5 M

Ambarella Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  8,630  in Ambarella on October 28, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (1,911) from holding Ambarella or give up 22.14% of portfolio value over 90 days. Ambarella is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 4.1901% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 37% of stocks are less volatile than Ambarella, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ambarella is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.65 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.08 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of volatility.

Ambarella Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Ambarella Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 67.19 90 days 67.19 
about 87.64
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambarella to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 87.64 (This Ambarella probability density function shows the probability of Ambarella Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.06 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ambarella will likely underperform. Additionally Ambarella has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Ambarella Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ambarella

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambarella. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
63.0067.1971.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.3062.4973.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
62.1066.2970.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
62.7770.2077.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ambarella. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ambarella's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ambarella's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ambarella.

Ambarella Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambarella is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambarella's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambarella, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambarella within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.47
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.06
σ
Overall volatility
8.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Ambarella Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambarella for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambarella can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ambarella generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ambarella has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 284.87 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 222.73 M.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Ambarella Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambarella Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambarella's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambarella's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding41.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments250.3 M

Ambarella Fundamentals Growth

Ambarella Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Ambarella, and Ambarella fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Ambarella Stock performance.

About Ambarella Performance

By analyzing Ambarella's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Ambarella's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Ambarella has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Ambarella has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Ambarella, Inc. develops semiconductor solutions for video that enable high-definition and ultra HD compression, image processing, and deep neural network processing worldwide. Ambarella, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Ambarella operates under Semiconductor Equipment Materials classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 899 people.

Things to note about Ambarella performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambarella for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambarella help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ambarella generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ambarella has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 284.87 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 222.73 M.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Evaluating Ambarella's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Ambarella's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Ambarella's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Ambarella's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Ambarella's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Ambarella's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Ambarella's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Ambarella's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Ambarella's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Ambarella's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Ambarella's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Ambarella's price analysis, check to measure Ambarella's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ambarella is operating at the current time. Most of Ambarella's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ambarella's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ambarella's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ambarella to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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