Bancfirst Stock Performance

BANF Stock  USD 110.00  5.59  4.84%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.33, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, BancFirst will likely underperform. BancFirst right now shows a risk of 1.94%. Please confirm BancFirst total risk alpha, downside variance, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if BancFirst will be following its price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days BancFirst has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite nearly stable basic indicators, BancFirst is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to mid-run losses for the stockholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(4.84)
Five Day Return
(5.60)
Year To Date Return
3.32
Ten Year Return
289.38
All Time Return
K
Forward Dividend Yield
0.017
Payout Ratio
0.2669
Last Split Factor
2:1
Forward Dividend Rate
1.96
Dividend Date
2026-01-15
1
Insider Trading
12/01/2025
2
Disposition of 10298 shares by Martin William Scott of BancFirst at 126.0053 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/05/2025
3
Acquisition by Schmidt Darryl of 200 shares of BancFirst subject to Rule 16b-3
12/09/2025
4
Is Now The Time To Put BancFirst On Your Watchlist
12/23/2025
 
BancFirst dividend paid on 15th of January 2026
01/15/2026
5
BancFirst GAAP EPS of 1.75 misses by 0.04, revenue of 181M beats by 7.24M
01/23/2026
6
Should BancFirsts Fifth Year of Record Earnings Spur Action From Investors
01/27/2026
7
Disposition of 269223 shares by Bf Bank Partners Lp of BancFirst subject to Rule 16b-3
01/30/2026
8
Disposition of 188 shares by David Rainbolt of BancFirst subject to Rule 16b-3
02/03/2026
9
Institutional Owners May Take Dramatic Actions as BancFirst Corporations Recent 7.0 percent Drop Adds to One-year Losses -
02/09/2026
10
BancFirst Valuation Check After Recent Momentum Shift And Mixed Pricing Signals
02/12/2026
11
How Strong Revenue But Softer EPS At BancFirst Has Changed Its Investment Story
02/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow3.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities15.5 M

BancFirst Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  11,048  in BancFirst on November 30, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (48.00) from holding BancFirst or give up 0.43% of portfolio value over 90 days. BancFirst is currently generating 0.0116% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.9387% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 17% of stocks are less volatile than BancFirst, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days BancFirst is expected to generate 5.21 times less return on investment than the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.56 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.01 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of volatility.

BancFirst Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of BancFirst Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 110.00 90 days 110.00 
about 70.73
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BancFirst to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 70.73 (This BancFirst probability density function shows the probability of BancFirst Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.33 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BancFirst will likely underperform. Additionally BancFirst has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   BancFirst Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for BancFirst

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BancFirst. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
108.07110.01111.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
99.00117.64119.58
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
105.61107.55109.49
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
112.54123.67137.27
Details

BancFirst Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BancFirst is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BancFirst's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BancFirst, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BancFirst within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.33
σ
Overall volatility
3.41
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

BancFirst Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BancFirst for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BancFirst can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 BancFirst paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: How Strong Revenue But Softer EPS At BancFirst Has Changed Its Investment Story

BancFirst Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BancFirst Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BancFirst's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BancFirst's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.3 B

BancFirst Fundamentals Growth

BancFirst Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of BancFirst, and BancFirst fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on BancFirst Stock performance.

About BancFirst Performance

By analyzing BancFirst's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into BancFirst's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if BancFirst has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if BancFirst has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.02  0.01 
Return On Capital Employed 0.02  0.02 
Return On Assets 0.02  0.01 
Return On Equity 0.04  0.04 

Things to note about BancFirst performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about BancFirst for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for BancFirst help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 BancFirst paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: How Strong Revenue But Softer EPS At BancFirst Has Changed Its Investment Story
Evaluating BancFirst's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate BancFirst's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing BancFirst's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether BancFirst's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining BancFirst's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating BancFirst's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of BancFirst's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of BancFirst's stock. These opinions can provide insight into BancFirst's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating BancFirst's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact BancFirst's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running BancFirst's price analysis, check to measure BancFirst's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BancFirst is operating at the current time. Most of BancFirst's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BancFirst's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BancFirst's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BancFirst to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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