Geo Group Stock Performance

GEO Stock  USD 15.90  0.42  2.71%   
Geo has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.98, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Geo returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Geo is expected to follow. Geo Group right now retains a risk of 2.42%. Please check out Geo potential upside, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and price action indicator , to decide if Geo will be following its current trending patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Soft

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Geo Group are ranked lower than 4 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of very inconsistent technical and fundamental indicators, Geo may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
2.71
Five Day Return
(2.03)
Year To Date Return
(0.19)
Ten Year Return
(13.49)
All Time Return
1.5 K
Last Split Factor
3:2
Dividend Date
2021-02-01
Ex Dividend Date
2021-01-22
Last Split Date
2017-04-25
1
Acquisition by J Donahue of 37500 shares of Geo subject to Rule 16b-3
11/28/2025
2
Geo Group Inc Receives Average Rating of Hold from Analysts - MarketBeat
12/17/2025
3
GEO Group Is Up 5.5 percent After Winning SoleSource Big Horn ICE Contract Is The Bull Case Changed
01/12/2026
4
Kontent.ai Launches AI-Powered SEO and GEO Workflows to Cut Optimization Time by Up to 80 percent and Optimize Content for Search and Answer Visibility
01/21/2026
5
DTC SEO Agency Expands Ecommerce Search Offering to Include AI Search, AEO, and GEO Attribution
01/23/2026
6
AllsWell Marks Consecutive Appearances at CES From Managed Brand PR to GEO, Advancing Brand Growth in the Generative Search Era
01/27/2026
7
Acquisition by Christopher Ryan of 10000 shares of Geo subject to Rule 16b-3
02/02/2026
8
Q3 Rundown Brady Vs Other Safety Security Services Stocks
02/03/2026
9
Has GEO Group Fallen Too Far Given DCF And PE Valuation Signals
02/06/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow159.9 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-101.7 M

Geo Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,498  in Geo Group on November 9, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  92.00  from holding Geo Group or generate 6.14% return on investment over 90 days. Geo Group is generating 0.1268% of daily returns assuming volatility of 2.4168% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 21% of stocks are less volatile than Geo, and above 98% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Geo is expected to generate 2.95 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.95 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.05 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of risk.

Geo Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Geo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 15.90 90 days 15.90 
about 66.42
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Geo to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 66.42 (This Geo Group probability density function shows the probability of Geo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Geo has a beta of 0.98. This usually indicates Geo Group market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Geo is expected to follow. Additionally Geo Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Geo Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Geo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.4915.9118.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3120.0722.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.4413.8616.28
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
29.3532.2535.80
Details

Geo Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Geo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Geo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Geo Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Geo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.98
σ
Overall volatility
0.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Geo Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Geo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Geo Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Geo Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Has GEO Group Fallen Too Far Given DCF And PE Valuation Signals

Geo Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Geo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Geo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding134.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments76.9 M

Geo Fundamentals Growth

Geo Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Geo, and Geo fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Geo Stock performance.

About Geo Performance

By examining Geo's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Geo's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Geo is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 11.11  8.22 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Capital Employed 0.09  0.11 
Return On Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Equity 0.03  0.03 

Things to note about Geo Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Geo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Geo Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Geo Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Has GEO Group Fallen Too Far Given DCF And PE Valuation Signals
Evaluating Geo's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Geo's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Geo's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Geo's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Geo's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Geo's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Geo's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Geo's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Geo's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Geo's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Geo's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Geo Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Geo's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Geo Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Geo Group Stock:
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Geo Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in services.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Commercial Services & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Geo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. Market participants price Geo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Geo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.526
Earnings Share
1.69
Revenue Per Share
18.405
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.131
Return On Assets
0.0472
Investors evaluate Geo Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Geo's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Geo's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Geo's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.