GeoVax Labs Stock Performance

GOVX Stock  USD 1.09  -0.06  -5.22%   
GeoVax Labs' total-return profile spans short-term moves to multi-year compounding. Based on the 3 months horizon, GeoVax Labs shows an expected return of -1.36%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
During the last 90 trading days, GeoVax Labs produced negative risk-adjusted performance, which signals weak return efficiency for investors with long positions. When applied, this score supports evaluation of raw price movement versus actual return efficiency. GeoVax Labs has delivered negative risk-adjusted performance over recent months. The stock's basic indicators have failed to convert volatility into returns, and current dislocation adds further downside pressure for the company's investors. Learn More
 Last Split Factor
1:25
 Dividend Date
2020-09-25
 Last Split Date
2026-01-12

Performance Related Modules

Earnings links to analyst estimate history and revisions, Ownership shows shareholder mix, Profitability focuses on margin and return ratios, Liquidity covers cash-flow strength and short-term funding capacity, and Fundamentals groups the broader financial ratio set.

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 295.00 in GeoVax Labs on January 26, 2026 and sold it today you would have lost $ 186.00 from holding GeoVax Labs or given up 63.05% of portfolio value over 90 days. GeoVax Labs does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 5.8285% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, GeoVax exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 48% of comparable stocks, and GOVX has trailed 99% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary evaluates how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given a 90-day horizon, GOVX has been underperforming the market. Compounding this underperformance, GOVX is 6.18 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It converts risk into return at a rate of about -0.23%. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0% per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price convergence toward a historical mean is a well-documented pattern for stocks like GeoVax Stock. Although this tendency is a useful forecasting input, some instruments remain persistently mispriced before market correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
1.09 90 days 1.09
about 88.11
Our distribution model estimates the likelihood of GeoVax Labs moving above the current price in 90 days from now at about 88.11 . Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (This GeoVax Labs distribution emphasizes the price range most consistent with recent behavior in GeoVax Stock over a 90-day period).
Given a 90-day horizon, GeoVax Labs has a beta of 0.8. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, GeoVax Labs's average returns tend to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding GeoVax Labs tends to be smaller as well. Additionally, GeoVax Labs has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. GOVX is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   GeoVax Labs Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for GeoVax Labs

Investors apply quantitative and fundamental models to forecast GeoVax Labs within the stock market. Combining results from different methods frames the confidence level warranted by GeoVax Labs predictions.
Statistical evidence for mean reversion in GeoVax Labs' appears through its tendency to revert after extreme valuations. Under mean reversion theory, GeoVax Labs' price extremes are viewed as temporary dislocations that may self-correct.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
0.061.126.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
0.9820.1826.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.031.327.15
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
70.5377.5086.03
Details
GeoVax Labs is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where GeoVax Labs leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set.

Primary Risk Indicators

Significant market corrections and rallies over the last two decades have made the stock market challenging for GeoVax Labs investors. Dramatic market moves have periodically reshaped the risk landscape for holders of GeoVax Labs.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-1.3354
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.80
σ
Overall volatility
0.61
Ir
Information ratio -0.2253

Investor Alerts and Insights

Tracking GeoVax Labs through automated alerts focuses attention on the most impactful stock developments. Reviewing GeoVax Labs notifications is an efficient way to stay current on technical patterns and fundamental changes.
GeoVax Labs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
GeoVax Labs has high historical volatility and very poor performance
GeoVax Labs has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
GeoVax Labs has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
GOVX reported previous year's revenue of 2.49 M. Net Loss for the year was -21.46 M with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of -15.63 M.
GeoVax Labs currently holds about 30.9 M in cash as of latest reporting with -21.47 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.25, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
GeoVax Labs has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 11982 shares by Hrt Financial Lp of Aditxt at 0.3 subject to Rule 16 b-3

Price Density Drivers

Several forces contribute to GeoVax Labs' price dynamics, including buyer and seller positioning dynamics and market conditions. Monitoring GeoVax Labs' price density drivers provides context for distinguishing fundamental from tactical price moves.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding958.4 K
Cash And Short Term Investments3.1 T

GeoVax Labs Fundamentals Growth

Market participants price GeoVax Stock based on their assessment of GeoVax Labs' financial trajectory. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core fundamentals driving GeoVax Stock.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

GeoVax Labs risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Adjusting for volatility reveals whether realized returns were earned efficiently or through excessive exposure. GeoVax Labs shows ROE of -4.84%, ROA of -1.87% (TTM) vs 0.0% (last reported).

GeoVax Labs metrics are compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized before display. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board