Kestrel Group Stock Performance

KG Stock   11.99  0.78  6.96%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.97, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Kestrel will likely underperform. At this point, Kestrel Group has a negative expected return of -0.44%. Please make sure to verify Kestrel's kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the day median price and period momentum indicator , to decide if Kestrel Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Kestrel Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite fragile performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
6.96
Five Day Return
0.93
Year To Date Return
27.55
Ten Year Return
(56.38)
All Time Return
(56.38)
Last Split Factor
1:20
Last Split Date
2025-05-28
1
Kestrel Bets on VTOL With 4.9 Million Buy - The Motley Fool
12/17/2025
Begin Period Cash Flow42.7 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities77.7 M

Kestrel Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,709  in Kestrel Group on November 11, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (510.00) from holding Kestrel Group or give up 29.84% of portfolio value over 90 days. Kestrel Group is generating negative expected returns and assumes 5.1109% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Put differently, 45% of stocks are less risky than Kestrel on the basis of their historical return distribution, and some 99% of all equities are expected to be superior in generating returns on investments over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Kestrel is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 6.33 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.09 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.09 per unit of volatility.

Kestrel Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Kestrel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 11.99 90 days 11.99 
about 55.41
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kestrel to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 55.41 (This Kestrel Group probability density function shows the probability of Kestrel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Kestrel will likely underperform. Additionally Kestrel Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Kestrel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kestrel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kestrel Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.0212.2017.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.9010.0815.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kestrel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kestrel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kestrel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kestrel Group.

Kestrel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kestrel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kestrel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kestrel Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kestrel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.97
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.97
σ
Overall volatility
3.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Kestrel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kestrel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kestrel Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kestrel Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Kestrel Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Kestrel Group was previously known as Maiden Holdings and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol MHLD.
The company generated the yearly revenue of 5.25 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (200.97 M) with gross profit of 20.12 M.
Kestrel Group reports about 545.31 M in cash with (67.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.58.
Kestrel Group has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures

Kestrel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kestrel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kestrel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kestrel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingM
Cash And Short Term Investments4.3 M

Kestrel Fundamentals Growth

Kestrel Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Kestrel, and Kestrel fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Kestrel Stock performance.

About Kestrel Performance

By analyzing Kestrel's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Kestrel's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Kestrel has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Kestrel has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Kestrel is entity of United States. It is traded as Stock on NASDAQ exchange.

Things to note about Kestrel Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kestrel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Kestrel Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kestrel Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Kestrel Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Kestrel Group was previously known as Maiden Holdings and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol MHLD.
The company generated the yearly revenue of 5.25 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (200.97 M) with gross profit of 20.12 M.
Kestrel Group reports about 545.31 M in cash with (67.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.58.
Kestrel Group has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Evaluating Kestrel's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Kestrel's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Kestrel's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Kestrel's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Kestrel's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Kestrel's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Kestrel's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Kestrel's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Kestrel's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Kestrel's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Kestrel's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Kestrel Stock analysis

When running Kestrel's price analysis, check to measure Kestrel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kestrel is operating at the current time. Most of Kestrel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kestrel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kestrel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kestrel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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