Moderna Stock Performance
| MRNA Stock | USD 42.23 2.12 5.29% |
Moderna holds a performance score of 16 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 2.12, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Moderna will likely underperform. Use Moderna maximum drawdown, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to analyze future returns on Moderna.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Solid
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Moderna are ranked lower than 16 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat unfluctuating basic indicators, Moderna sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 5.29 | Five Day Return 12.31 | Year To Date Return 36.84 | Ten Year Return 127.04 | All Time Return 127.04 |
1 | Acquisition by Noubar Afeyan of 23853 shares of Moderna at 10.9 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/02/2026 |
2 | Whats Happening With Moderna Stock | 01/22/2026 |
3 | Moderna Announces Strategic Collaboration with Recordati to Globally Commercialize Investigational Propionic Acidemia Therapeutic | 01/29/2026 |
4 | Is Moderna Pricing Reflect Long Term Potential After Recent 36.7 percent Surge | 02/04/2026 |
5 | Moderna Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates What to Know Ahead of Q4 Release | 02/06/2026 |
6 | How Investors Are Reacting To Moderna Denied Immunity In High-Stakes Vaccine Patent Case | 02/09/2026 |
7 | Moderna says FDA refuses its application for new mRNA flu vaccine | 02/10/2026 |
8 | Disposition of 5450 shares by Stephane Bancel of Moderna at 41.99 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 02/11/2026 |
9 | Clinical Trials Show Modernas New mRNA Flu Vaccine Is Safe and Effective. FDA Wont Even Consider It. | 02/12/2026 |
10 | Moderna Challenges FDA After Flu Shot Review Refusal, 26 percent Covid Drop | 02/13/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 1.9 B | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | 1.9 B | |
| Free Cash Flow | -2.1 B |
Moderna Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 2,418 in Moderna on November 19, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 1,805 from holding Moderna or generate 74.65% return on investment over 90 days. Moderna is currently generating 1.0483% in daily expected returns and assumes 4.912% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 44% of stocks are less volatile than Moderna, and 79% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Moderna Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Moderna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 42.23 | 90 days | 42.23 | about 14.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moderna to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.75 (This Moderna probability density function shows the probability of Moderna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Moderna Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Moderna
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Moderna Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moderna is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moderna's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moderna, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moderna within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Moderna Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moderna for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moderna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Moderna appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.94 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.82 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.06 B). | |
| Moderna currently holds about 8.35 B in cash with (1.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.73. | |
| Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Moderna Challenges FDA After Flu Shot Review Refusal, 26 percent Covid Drop |
Moderna Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moderna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moderna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moderna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 389 M | |
| Shares Float | 365.4 M |
Moderna Fundamentals Growth
Moderna Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Moderna, and Moderna fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Moderna Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -0.29 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.15 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (1.45) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (1.26) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 11.96 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 390.73 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 6.37 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.77 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 8.49 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.94 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | (2.06 B) | ||||
| EBITDA | (3.07 B) | ||||
| Net Income | (2.82 B) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 8.35 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 21.73 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 747 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.07 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 2.10 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 22.07 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (1.87 B) | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (7.26) X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 16.5 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 14.14 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 10.04 B | ||||
| Working Capital | 5.89 B | ||||
| Current Asset | 850 K | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 2.44 M | ||||
About Moderna Performance
By analyzing Moderna's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Moderna's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Moderna has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Moderna has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 33.55 | 31.87 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.23) | (0.22) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.30) | (0.28) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.23) | (0.22) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.29) | (0.28) |
Things to note about Moderna performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Moderna for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Moderna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Moderna appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.94 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.82 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.06 B). | |
| Moderna currently holds about 8.35 B in cash with (1.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.73. | |
| Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Moderna Challenges FDA After Flu Shot Review Refusal, 26 percent Covid Drop |
- Analyzing Moderna's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Moderna's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Moderna's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Moderna's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Moderna's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Moderna's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Moderna's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis
When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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