Novavax Stock Performance
| NVAX Stock | USD 8.25 0.38 4.83% |
On a scale of 0 to 100, Novavax holds a performance score of 6. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.61, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Novavax will likely underperform. Please check Novavax's sortino ratio, semi variance, as well as the relationship between the Semi Variance and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Novavax's current price movements will revert.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Mild
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Novavax are ranked lower than 6 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly unsteady basic indicators, Novavax showed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 583.8 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -204 M |
Novavax Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 711.00 in Novavax on November 9, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 114.00 from holding Novavax or generate 16.03% return on investment over 90 days. Novavax is currently generating 0.3337% in daily expected returns and assumes 4.3773% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 39% of stocks are less volatile than Novavax, and 94% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Novavax Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Novavax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 8.25 | 90 days | 8.25 | about 20.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novavax to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 20.61 (This Novavax probability density function shows the probability of Novavax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Novavax Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novavax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novavax. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Novavax Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novavax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novavax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novavax, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novavax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Novavax Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novavax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novavax can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novavax had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 682.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (187.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 632.62 M. | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (87.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Novavax Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novavax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novavax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novavax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 923.1 M |
Novavax Fundamentals Growth
Novavax Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Novavax, and Novavax fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Novavax Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -8.98 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.18 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.32 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (1.13) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 767.11 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 162.5 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | (1.36) X | ||||
| Price To Book | 41.23 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.26 X | ||||
| Revenue | 682.16 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (108.04 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.28 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 16.31 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 230.42 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 8.24 % | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | (0.96) X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (87.26 M) | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 2.01 X | ||||
| Total Asset | 1.56 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (5.01 B) | ||||
| Current Asset | 287.26 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 76.49 M | ||||
About Novavax Performance
Evaluating Novavax's performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if Novavax has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Novavax has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Novavax operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1541 people.Things to note about Novavax performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novavax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Novavax help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novavax had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 682.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (187.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 632.62 M. | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (87.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
- Analyzing Novavax's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Novavax's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Novavax's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Novavax's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Novavax's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Novavax's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Novavax's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.