Novavax Stock Technical Analysis
| NVAX Stock | USD 8.69 0.04 0.46% |
As of the 19th of February, Novavax secures the Mean Deviation of 3.0, downside deviation of 3.29, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0767. In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check existing technical drivers of Novavax, as well as the relationship between them.
Novavax Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Novavax, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to NovavaxNovavax's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Novavax Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 12.89 | Buy | 7 | Odds |
Most Novavax analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Novavax stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Novavax, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Novavax conference calls.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. Anticipated expansion of Novavax directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Novavax assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Earnings Share 2.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Novavax's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Novavax should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Novavax's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.
Novavax 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavax's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavax.
| 11/21/2025 |
| 02/19/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novavax on November 21, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavax or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavax over 90 days. Novavax is related to or competes with Zenas BioPharma, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Upstream Bio, Wave Life, Trevi Therapeutics, Intellia Therapeutics, and Precigen. Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prev... More
Novavax Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavax's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavax upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0757 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.98 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.1 |
Novavax Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavax's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavax's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavax historical prices to predict the future Novavax's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0767 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2907 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1631 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.099 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1856 |
Novavax February 19, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0767 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1956 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1154.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Variance | 18.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0757 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2907 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1631 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.099 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1856 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.98 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.56) | |||
| Skewness | 1.77 | |||
| Kurtosis | 7.04 |
Novavax Backtested Returns
Novavax appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Novavax has Sharpe Ratio of 0.13, which conveys that the firm had a 0.13 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Novavax's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.59% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Novavax's Downside Deviation of 3.29, risk adjusted performance of 0.0767, and Mean Deviation of 3.0 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Novavax holds a performance score of 10. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.95, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Novavax will likely underperform. Please check Novavax's sortino ratio, semi variance, as well as the relationship between the Semi Variance and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Novavax's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
Novavax has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavax time series from 21st of November 2025 to 5th of January 2026 and 5th of January 2026 to 19th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Novavax price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.6 |
Novavax technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Novavax Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was ten with a total number of output elements of fifty-one. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of Novavax volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About Novavax Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Novavax on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Novavax based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Novavax price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Novavax. By analyzing Novavax's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Novavax's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Novavax specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.007475 | 0.006645 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.06 | 1.96 |
Novavax February 19, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Novavax help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Novavax from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Novavax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0767 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1956 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1154.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Variance | 18.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0757 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2907 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1631 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.099 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1856 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.98 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.56) | |||
| Skewness | 1.77 | |||
| Kurtosis | 7.04 |
Novavax February 19, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Novavax stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 54,865 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.14 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.00 | ||
| Day Median Price | 8.71 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 8.70 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.00 |
Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.