Nova Stock Performance

NVMI Stock  USD 487.18  10.11  2.12%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Nova holds a performance score of 15. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 2.09, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Nova will likely underperform. Please check Nova's downside variance, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to make a quick decision on whether Nova's current price movements will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Nova are ranked lower than 15 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly fragile primary indicators, Nova demonstrated solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
2.12
Five Day Return
5.32
Year To Date Return
40.26
Ten Year Return
5.2 K
All Time Return
2.1 K
1
Nova Reports Earnings Tomorrow What To Expect
11/05/2025
2
Terra Nova Asset Management LLC Sells 12,086 Shares of Blackstone Inc. BX - MarketBeat
11/21/2025
3
Nova Stock Is Up, What You Need To Know
12/15/2025
4
Investing in Nova five years ago would have delivered you a 331 percent gain
01/02/2026
5
12 Information Technology Stocks Moving In Tuesdays After-Market Session
01/06/2026
6
Nova to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results on February 12
01/07/2026
7
Here is What to Know Beyond Why GE Vernova Inc. is a Trending Stock - Yahoo Finance
01/09/2026
8
3 Reasons We Love Nova
01/14/2026
9
Reflecting On Semiconductor Manufacturing Stocks Q3 Earnings Marvell Technology
01/16/2026
10
Nova Is Up 6.2 percent After Needham Upgrade And China Memory Exposure Focus Whats Changed
01/23/2026
11
Assessing Whether Nova Shares Look Overvalued After Recent Strong Price Momentum
01/28/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow107.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-136.4 M

Nova Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  34,464  in Nova on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  14,254  from holding Nova or generate 41.36% return on investment over 90 days. Nova is currently generating 0.6207% in daily expected returns and assumes 3.2427% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 29% of stocks are less volatile than Nova, and 88% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Nova is expected to generate 4.3 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.3 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.19 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Nova Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 487.18 90 days 487.18 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Nova probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.09 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Nova will likely underperform. Additionally Nova has an alpha of 0.4489, implying that it can generate a 0.45 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Nova Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Nova

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
479.71482.95535.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
466.46469.70535.90
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
480.36483.61486.85
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
358.31393.75437.06
Details

Nova Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.45
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.09
σ
Overall volatility
53.85
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

Nova Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nova appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Nova has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Assessing Whether Nova Shares Look Overvalued After Recent Strong Price Momentum

Nova Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nova's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nova's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding32.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments586.6 M

Nova Fundamentals Growth

Nova Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Nova, and Nova fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Nova Stock performance.

About Nova Performance

By evaluating Nova's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Nova's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Nova has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Nova has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 180.30  99.82 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.14  0.13 
Return On Capital Employed 0.17  0.18 
Return On Assets 0.13  0.12 
Return On Equity 0.18  0.19 

Things to note about Nova performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nova appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Nova has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Assessing Whether Nova Shares Look Overvalued After Recent Strong Price Momentum
Evaluating Nova's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Nova's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Nova's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Nova's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Nova's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Nova's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Nova's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Nova's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Nova's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Nova's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Nova's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Nova Stock analysis

When running Nova's price analysis, check to measure Nova's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nova is operating at the current time. Most of Nova's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nova's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nova's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nova to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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