Nova Stock Price Patterns

NVMI Stock  USD 460.80  2.89  0.62%   
As of 11th of February 2026 The relative strength index (RSI) of Nova's share price is above 80 . This indicates that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 83

 Buy Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Nova's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nova, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Nova's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.188
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.1006
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.669
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.7216
Wall Street Target Price
400.7143
Using Nova hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nova from the perspective of Nova response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nova using Nova's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nova using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nova's stock price.

Nova Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Nova's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Nova. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Nova stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
296.3444
Short Percent
0.0472
Short Ratio
4.18
Shares Short Prior Month
1.4 M
50 Day MA
380.6914

Nova Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Nova's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nova. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nova can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nova. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Nova's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Nova.

Nova Implied Volatility

    
  0.8  
Nova's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nova stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nova's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nova stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nova's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Nova to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Nova because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Nova after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 466.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nova contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nova will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Nova trading at USD 460.8, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nova's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nova options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Nova Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Nova Stock please use our How to Invest in Nova guide.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
397.54400.81506.88
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
364.65400.71444.79
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.062.152.21
Details

Nova After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nova at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nova or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nova, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nova Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nova's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nova's historical news coverage. Nova's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 414.72 and 469.89, respectively. We have considered Nova's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
460.80
414.72
Downside
466.62
After-hype Price
469.89
Upside
Nova is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nova is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nova Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nova is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nova backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nova, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.79 
3.27
  5.82 
  2.08 
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
460.80
466.62
1.26 
44.37  
Notes

Nova Hype Timeline

Nova is now traded for 460.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 5.82, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.08. Nova is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 466.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 44.37%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.26%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.79%. The volatility of related hype on Nova is about 124.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 458.72. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 672.4 M. Net Income was 183.76 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 486.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Nova Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Nova Stock please use our How to Invest in Nova guide.

Nova Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nova's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nova's future price movements. Getting to know how Nova's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nova may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TSEMTower Semiconductor 3.05 10 per month 3.53  0.16  6.43 (7.02) 27.77 
RMBSRambus Inc(9.90)7 per month 4.57 (0) 7.54 (7.58) 27.80 
AMKRAmkor Technology(0.40)10 per month 3.20  0.14  8.71 (5.80) 18.45 
SWKSSkyworks Solutions 1.32 8 per month 0.00 (0.12) 3.25 (3.83) 13.39 
LSCCLattice Semiconductor(1.85)9 per month 1.64  0.19  5.62 (3.35) 10.34 
MKSIMKS Instruments(5.94)10 per month 2.09  0.27  5.59 (4.17) 17.56 
IDCCInterDigital(5.09)5 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.50 (4.57) 13.49 
MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions(6.28)9 per month 2.15  0.18  5.94 (4.73) 18.12 
QRVOQorvo Inc 0.26 6 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.19 (2.89) 10.60 
ENTGEntegris(1.44)9 per month 2.39  0.17  8.09 (3.78) 13.92 

Nova Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nova price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nova using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nova charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Nova Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Nova stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Nova, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Nova based on analysis of Nova hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Nova's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Nova's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 2026 (projected)
Days Sales Outstanding78.8776.0568.4555.24
PTB Ratio5.316.215.595.87

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