Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock Price Prediction

CHDN Stock  USD 141.83  0.04  0.03%   
As of today, The relative strength indicator of Churchill Downs' share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Churchill Downs, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

52

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Churchill Downs' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Churchill Downs Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Churchill Downs' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.089
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.02
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.8749
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.0783
Wall Street Target Price
163.0182
Using Churchill Downs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Churchill Downs Incorporated from the perspective of Churchill Downs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Churchill Downs Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Churchill Downs' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Churchill. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Churchill can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Churchill Downs Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Churchill Downs' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Churchill Downs.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Churchill Downs to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Churchill because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Churchill Downs after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 142.06  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Churchill Downs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
141.18142.76144.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
140.85142.42144.00
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
131.72144.75160.67
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.431.471.51
Details

Churchill Downs After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Churchill Downs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Churchill Downs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Churchill Downs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Churchill Downs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Churchill Downs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Churchill Downs' historical news coverage. Churchill Downs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 140.48 and 143.64, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
141.83
140.48
Downside
142.06
After-hype Price
143.64
Upside
Churchill Downs is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Churchill Downs is based on 3 months time horizon.

Churchill Downs Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Churchill Downs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Churchill Downs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Churchill Downs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
1.58
  0.23 
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
141.83
142.06
0.16 
26.96  
Notes

Churchill Downs Hype Timeline

Churchill Downs is currently traded for 141.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Churchill is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 142.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 26.96%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Churchill Downs is about 2086.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 141.83. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.46 B. Net Income was 417.3 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 566.4 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Churchill Downs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Churchill Downs Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Churchill Downs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Churchill Downs' future price movements. Getting to know how Churchill Downs' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Churchill Downs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Churchill Downs Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Churchill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Churchill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Churchill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Churchill Downs Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Churchill Downs stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Churchill Downs Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Churchill Downs based on analysis of Churchill Downs hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Churchill Downs's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Churchill Downs's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0026670.0032450.0026710.002537
Price To Sales Ratio5.824.434.124.33

Story Coverage note for Churchill Downs

The number of cover stories for Churchill Downs depends on current market conditions and Churchill Downs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Churchill Downs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Churchill Downs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Churchill Downs Short Properties

Churchill Downs' future price predictability will typically decrease when Churchill Downs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Churchill Downs Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments144.5 M
When determining whether Churchill Downs offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Churchill Downs' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock:
Check out Churchill Downs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.089
Dividend Share
0.382
Earnings Share
5.53
Revenue Per Share
35.989
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.098
The market value of Churchill Downs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.