Canadian Natural Resources Stock Price Prediction
| CNQ Stock | USD 31.12 0.32 1.04% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.62 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5983 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.7665 | Wall Street Target Price 38.1565 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.64 |
Using Canadian Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canadian Natural Resources from the perspective of Canadian Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Canadian Natural using Canadian Natural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Canadian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Canadian Natural's stock price.
Canadian Natural Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Canadian Natural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Canadian Natural Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Canadian Natural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Canadian Natural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Canadian Natural's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Canadian Natural to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Canadian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Canadian Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 30.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Canadian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Canadian Natural Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Canadian Natural trading at USD 31.12, that is roughly USD 0.0109 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Canadian Natural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Canadian Natural Resources options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Canadian Natural After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canadian Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canadian Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canadian Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canadian Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canadian Natural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canadian Natural's historical news coverage. Canadian Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.44 and 32.42, respectively. We have considered Canadian Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canadian Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canadian Natural Res is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canadian Natural Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canadian Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canadian Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canadian Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.49 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
31.12 | 30.93 | 0.61 |
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Canadian Natural Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 Canadian Natural Res is traded for 31.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Canadian is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 146.08%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.61%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Canadian Natural is about 1115.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.15. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Canadian Natural was currently reported as 18.88. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2024. Canadian Natural Res had 2:1 split on the 11th of June 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Canadian Natural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Canadian Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canadian Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canadian Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Canadian Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canadian Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTE | Baytex Energy Corp | (0.09) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.50 | (4.18) | 10.87 | |
| VET | Vermilion Energy | (0.03) | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.01 | 4.47 | (3.64) | 11.31 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.10 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.97 | (4.08) | 13.17 | |
| OVV | Ovintiv | 0.10 | 10 per month | 1.69 | 0.06 | 2.87 | (3.09) | 9.92 | |
| CPG | CPG Old | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.84 | (3.94) | 8.83 | |
| ROCC | Ranger Oil Corp | (0.24) | 10 per month | 1.79 | 0.02 | 3.36 | (2.72) | 10.33 | |
| ERF | Enerplus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | 0.07 | 4.61 | (3.05) | 8.71 | |
| EOG | EOG Resources | (0.60) | 11 per month | 1.20 | 0.04 | 2.30 | (1.72) | 9.26 | |
| DVN | Devon Energy | 0.65 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.39 | (3.33) | 5.99 | |
| PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.43 | (2.71) | 6.32 | |
| MRO | Marathon Oil | 0.45 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.02 | 2.64 | (3.27) | 7.72 | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 2.61 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.25 | (3.19) | 7.94 | |
| VTLE | Vital Energy | (0.66) | 7 per month | 2.65 | 0.13 | 4.42 | (4.55) | 13.50 | |
| AR | Antero Resources Corp | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.78 | 0.21 | 5.96 | (2.50) | 11.64 |
Canadian Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canadian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canadian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canadian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Canadian Natural Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Canadian Natural stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Canadian Natural Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Canadian Natural based on analysis of Canadian Natural hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Canadian Natural's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Canadian Natural's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0577 | 0.0411 | 0.037 | 0.0388 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.72 | 2.63 | 3.03 | 3.97 |
Story Coverage note for Canadian Natural
The number of cover stories for Canadian Natural depends on current market conditions and Canadian Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canadian Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canadian Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Canadian Natural Short Properties
Canadian Natural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canadian Natural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canadian Natural Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canadian Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Additional Tools for Canadian Stock Analysis
When running Canadian Natural's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.