Canadian Natural Stock Forward View
| CNQ Stock | USD 36.91 0.41 1.12% |
Canadian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Canadian Natural's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Canadian Natural's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Canadian Natural fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Canadian Natural's stock price is slightly above 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Canadian, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7876 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.3429 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.691 | Wall Street Target Price 36.9695 |
Using Canadian Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canadian Natural Resources from the perspective of Canadian Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Canadian Natural using Canadian Natural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Canadian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Canadian Natural's stock price.
Canadian Natural Short Interest
An investor who is long Canadian Natural may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Canadian Natural and may potentially protect profits, hedge Canadian Natural with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.8278 | Short Percent 0.0097 | Short Ratio 1.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 178.7 M | 50 Day MA 33.716 |
Canadian Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 37.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.22.Canadian Natural Res Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Canadian Natural's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Canadian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Canadian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Canadian Natural Resources. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Canadian Natural's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Canadian Natural.
Canadian Natural Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Canadian Natural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Canadian Natural Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Canadian Natural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Canadian Natural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Canadian Natural's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 37.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.22. Canadian Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 37.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canadian Natural to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Canadian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Canadian Natural Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Canadian Natural trading at USD 36.91, that is roughly USD 0.0143 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Canadian Natural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Canadian Natural Resources options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Canadian Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Canadian Natural's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Canadian Natural's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Canadian Natural stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Canadian Natural's open interest, investors have to compare it to Canadian Natural's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Canadian Natural is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Canadian. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Canadian Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canadian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canadian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canadian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Canadian Natural Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Canadian Natural's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1996-12-31 | Previous Quarter 102 M | Current Value 113 M | Quarterly Volatility 233.1 M |
Canadian Natural Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 37.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Canadian Natural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canadian Natural | Canadian Natural Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Canadian Natural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Canadian Natural's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canadian Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.44 and 39.19, respectively. We have considered Canadian Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Natural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Natural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5056 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5609 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.2159 |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Natural Res. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canadian Natural After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canadian Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canadian Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canadian Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canadian Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canadian Natural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canadian Natural's historical news coverage. Canadian Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.13 and 38.89, respectively. We have considered Canadian Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canadian Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canadian Natural Res is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canadian Natural Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canadian Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canadian Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canadian Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.88 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.91 | 37.01 | 0.27 |
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Canadian Natural Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Canadian Natural Res is traded for 36.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Canadian is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Canadian Natural is about 650.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.83. The company reported the last year's revenue of 35.66 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.11 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 18.87 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canadian Natural to cross-verify your projections.Canadian Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canadian Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canadian Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Canadian Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canadian Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EOG | EOG Resources | (1.14) | 7 per month | 1.43 | 0 | 2.49 | (2.34) | 6.52 | |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners | 0.11 | 7 per month | 0.62 | 0.11 | 1.51 | (1.33) | 3.41 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.05 | 2.86 | (3.35) | 7.91 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.18 | 28 per month | 1.53 | 0.18 | 4.21 | (2.07) | 10.67 | |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | 0.46 | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.08 | 2.22 | (1.43) | 3.94 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.19 | 3.70 | (2.02) | 11.62 | |
| WMB | Williams Companies | 0.30 | 10 per month | 1.24 | 0.12 | 2.35 | (1.80) | 6.27 | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | (1.36) | 10 per month | 1.65 | 0.08 | 3.34 | (3.24) | 7.95 | |
| MPLX | MPLX LP | (1.36) | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.11 | 1.73 | (1.73) | 4.74 | |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan | (0.40) | 7 per month | 1.07 | 0.14 | 1.99 | (1.71) | 6.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Natural
For every potential investor in Canadian, whether a beginner or expert, Canadian Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canadian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canadian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canadian Natural's price trends.Canadian Natural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canadian Natural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canadian Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canadian Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canadian Natural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canadian Natural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canadian Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canadian Natural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canadian Natural Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Canadian Natural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canadian Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canadian Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canadian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canadian Natural
The number of cover stories for Canadian Natural depends on current market conditions and Canadian Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canadian Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canadian Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Canadian Natural Short Properties
Canadian Natural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canadian Natural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canadian Natural Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canadian Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131 M |
Additional Tools for Canadian Stock Analysis
When running Canadian Natural's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.