Ducommun Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
| DCO Stock | USD 66.28 1.13 1.73% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.05 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.89 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.3625 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.07 | Wall Street Target Price 84.5 |
Using Ducommun Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ducommun Incorporated from the perspective of Ducommun Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ducommun Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ducommun Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ducommun. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ducommun can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ducommun Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ducommun Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ducommun Incorporated.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ducommun Incorporated to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ducommun because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ducommun Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 66.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ducommun |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ducommun Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ducommun Incorporated After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ducommun Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ducommun Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ducommun Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ducommun Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ducommun Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ducommun Incorporated's historical news coverage. Ducommun Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.59 and 68.11, respectively. We have considered Ducommun Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ducommun Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ducommun Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ducommun Incorporated Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ducommun Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ducommun Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ducommun Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.78 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
66.28 | 66.35 | 0.11 |
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Ducommun Incorporated Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November Ducommun Incorporated is traded for 66.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ducommun is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 66.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 143.55%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Ducommun Incorporated is about 812.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.27. The company reported the last year's revenue of 756.99 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 15.93 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 144.8 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ducommun Incorporated Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ducommun Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ducommun Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ducommun Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Ducommun Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ducommun Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0.03 | 3.28 | (3.31) | 9.31 | |
| KAMN | Kaman | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.21 | 0 | 5.37 | (3.75) | 14.48 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | 0.64 | 5 per month | 1.37 | (0.01) | 2.43 | (2.44) | 8.03 | |
| ATRO | Astronics | 0.58 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.07 | (6.69) | 22.57 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.62 | 4 per month | 0.95 | 0.05 | 3.51 | (1.98) | 12.34 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | (2.48) | 8 per month | 2.10 | 0.10 | 2.95 | (3.45) | 21.00 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.93) | 6.52 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (1.53) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.00 | (2.66) | 6.19 | |
| MRCY | Mercury Systems | (1.01) | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.02 | 2.83 | (3.14) | 29.10 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | 0.83 | 9 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 2.64 | (3.52) | 14.62 |
Ducommun Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ducommun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ducommun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ducommun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ducommun Incorporated Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ducommun Incorporated stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ducommun Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ducommun Incorporated based on analysis of Ducommun Incorporated hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ducommun Incorporated's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ducommun Incorporated's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00531 | 0.005045 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.94 | 0.99 |
Story Coverage note for Ducommun Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Ducommun Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Ducommun Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ducommun Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ducommun Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ducommun Incorporated Short Properties
Ducommun Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ducommun Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ducommun Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ducommun Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ducommun Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 42.9 M |
Check out Ducommun Incorporated Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ducommun Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ducommun Incorporated guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ducommun Incorporated. If investors know Ducommun will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ducommun Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.05 | Earnings Share 2 | Revenue Per Share 53.056 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 | Return On Assets 0.0333 |
The market value of Ducommun Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ducommun that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ducommun Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ducommun Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ducommun Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ducommun Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ducommun Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ducommun Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ducommun Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.