China Yuchai International Stock Price Prediction
| CYD Stock | USD 10.95 0.20 1.79% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.347 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3665 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4 | Wall Street Target Price 14.1 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
Using China Yuchai hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Yuchai International from the perspective of China Yuchai response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards China Yuchai using China Yuchai's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards China using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of China Yuchai's stock price.
China Yuchai Implied Volatility | 1.52 |
China Yuchai's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of China Yuchai International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if China Yuchai's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that China Yuchai stock will not fluctuate a lot when China Yuchai's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Yuchai to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
China Yuchai after-hype prediction price | USD 10.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current China contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that China Yuchai International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.095% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With China Yuchai trading at USD 10.95, that is roughly USD 0.0104 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating China Yuchai's daily price movement you should consider acquiring China Yuchai International options at the current volatility level of 1.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
China |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Yuchai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Yuchai After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of China Yuchai at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Yuchai or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of China Yuchai, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
China Yuchai Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting China Yuchai's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Yuchai's historical news coverage. China Yuchai's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.61 and 15.19, respectively. We have considered China Yuchai's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
China Yuchai is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Yuchai Interna is based on 3 months time horizon.
China Yuchai Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Yuchai is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Yuchai backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Yuchai, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 4.29 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.95 | 10.90 | 0.46 |
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China Yuchai Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February China Yuchai Interna is traded for 10.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. China is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on China Yuchai is about 4663.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.96. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. China Yuchai Interna last dividend was issued on the 19th of August 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out China Yuchai Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.China Yuchai Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to China Yuchai's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Yuchai's future price movements. Getting to know how China Yuchai's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Yuchai may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CAAS | China Automotive Systems | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.81 | (4.12) | 13.62 | |
| CHNR | China Natural Resources | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.77 | (9.52) | 31.13 | |
| SNDA | Sonida Senior Living | 0.73 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.80 | (4.51) | 12.89 | |
| UTSI | UTStarcom Holdings Corp | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.84 | (6.84) | 18.36 | |
| DSWL | Deswell Industries | (0.08) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.27 | (3.04) | 7.22 |
China Yuchai Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About China Yuchai Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of China Yuchai stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Yuchai International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Yuchai based on analysis of China Yuchai hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Yuchai's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Yuchai's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.055 | 0.033 | 0.0297 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
Story Coverage note for China Yuchai
The number of cover stories for China Yuchai depends on current market conditions and China Yuchai's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Yuchai is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Yuchai's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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China Yuchai Short Properties
China Yuchai's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Yuchai's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Yuchai International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Yuchai's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Yuchai's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 B |
Complementary Tools for China Stock analysis
When running China Yuchai's price analysis, check to measure China Yuchai's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Yuchai is operating at the current time. Most of China Yuchai's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Yuchai's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Yuchai's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Yuchai to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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