Federal Signal Stock Price Prediction

FSS Stock  USD 94.82  3.16  3.45%   
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Federal Signal's share price is at 55. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Federal Signal, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

55

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Federal Signal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Federal Signal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Federal Signal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federal Signal, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Federal Signal's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.225
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.84
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.3486
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.7343
Wall Street Target Price
99.6
Using Federal Signal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Signal from the perspective of Federal Signal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Federal Signal Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Federal Signal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federal Signal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Federal Signal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Federal Signal.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Federal Signal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Federal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Federal Signal after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 94.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Federal Stock please use our How to Invest in Federal Signal guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal Signal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
77.0479.06104.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
90.9892.9995.01
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
58.4764.2571.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.830.840.85
Details

Federal Signal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Federal Signal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Signal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Signal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Federal Signal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Federal Signal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Signal's historical news coverage. Federal Signal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.81 and 96.85, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
94.82
94.83
After-hype Price
96.85
Upside
Federal Signal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Signal is based on 3 months time horizon.

Federal Signal Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Signal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Signal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Signal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
2.03
  0.01 
 0.00  
9 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
94.82
94.83
0.01 
1,194  
Notes

Federal Signal Hype Timeline

On the 22nd of November Federal Signal is traded for 94.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Federal is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 94.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Signal is about 2291.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.82. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.72 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 157.4 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 344.9 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Federal Stock please use our How to Invest in Federal Signal guide.

Federal Signal Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Signal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Signal's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Signal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Signal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Federal Signal Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Federal Signal Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Federal Signal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Federal Signal, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Federal Signal based on analysis of Federal Signal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Federal Signal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Federal Signal's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0083490.0077540.0051090.004854
Price To Sales Ratio2.171.962.72.84

Story Coverage note for Federal Signal

The number of cover stories for Federal Signal depends on current market conditions and Federal Signal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Signal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Signal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Federal Signal Short Properties

Federal Signal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Federal Signal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federal Signal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federal Signal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Signal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding61.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments61 M

Additional Tools for Federal Stock Analysis

When running Federal Signal's price analysis, check to measure Federal Signal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Signal is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Signal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Signal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Signal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Signal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.