Gcm Grosvenor Stock Price Prediction
| GCMG Stock | USD 13.52 0.06 0.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.22 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6887 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8045 | Wall Street Target Price 14.3 |
Using GCM Grosvenor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GCM Grosvenor from the perspective of GCM Grosvenor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards GCM Grosvenor using GCM Grosvenor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards GCM using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of GCM Grosvenor's stock price.
GCM Grosvenor Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in GCM Grosvenor's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards GCM. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of GCM Grosvenor stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.0541 | Short Percent 0.2675 | Short Ratio 20.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.9 M | 50 Day MA 12.549 |
GCM Grosvenor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to GCM Grosvenor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in GCM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding GCM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around GCM Grosvenor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of GCM Grosvenor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about GCM Grosvenor.
GCM Grosvenor Implied Volatility | 1.02 |
GCM Grosvenor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of GCM Grosvenor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if GCM Grosvenor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that GCM Grosvenor stock will not fluctuate a lot when GCM Grosvenor's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in GCM Grosvenor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying GCM because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
GCM Grosvenor after-hype prediction price | USD 13.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current GCM contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that GCM Grosvenor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0638% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With GCM Grosvenor trading at USD 13.52, that is roughly USD 0.008619 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating GCM Grosvenor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring GCM Grosvenor options at the current volatility level of 1.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
GCM |
GCM Grosvenor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GCM Grosvenor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GCM Grosvenor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GCM Grosvenor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GCM Grosvenor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GCM Grosvenor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GCM Grosvenor's historical news coverage. GCM Grosvenor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.11 and 15.13, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GCM Grosvenor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GCM Grosvenor is based on 3 months time horizon.
GCM Grosvenor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GCM Grosvenor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GCM Grosvenor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GCM Grosvenor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.51 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.52 | 13.62 | 0.74 |
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GCM Grosvenor Hype Timeline
GCM Grosvenor is currently traded for 13.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. GCM is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on GCM Grosvenor is about 4118.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.51. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 445 M. Net Income was 12.77 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 143.14 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out GCM Grosvenor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.GCM Grosvenor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GCM Grosvenor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GCM Grosvenor's future price movements. Getting to know how GCM Grosvenor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GCM Grosvenor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CBH | CBH | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.22 | (0.22) | 0.78 | |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.66 | (0.11) | 0.76 | (1.01) | 3.18 | |
| IHTA | Invesco High Income | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.25 | (0.07) | 0.68 | (0.27) | 2.03 | |
| EOT | Eaton Vance National | (0.16) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.87 | (1.01) | 2.88 | |
| NXC | Nuveen California Select | (0.18) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.82 | (0.97) | 3.97 | |
| FMN | Federated Premier Municipal | 0.10 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.07 | (1.09) | 2.60 | |
| MHN | Blackrock Muniholdings Ny | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.93 | (1.13) | 2.69 | |
| IHIT | IHIT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.07 | (1.18) | 2.70 | |
| JHAA | Nuveen High Income | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.33 | (0.22) | 0.96 |
GCM Grosvenor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GCM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GCM using various technical indicators. When you analyze GCM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About GCM Grosvenor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of GCM Grosvenor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as GCM Grosvenor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of GCM Grosvenor based on analysis of GCM Grosvenor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to GCM Grosvenor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to GCM Grosvenor's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0552 | 0.0525 | 0.0604 | 0.0574 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.75 | 0.87 | 1.0 | 1.07 |
Story Coverage note for GCM Grosvenor
The number of cover stories for GCM Grosvenor depends on current market conditions and GCM Grosvenor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GCM Grosvenor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GCM Grosvenor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GCM Grosvenor Short Properties
GCM Grosvenor's future price predictability will typically decrease when GCM Grosvenor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GCM Grosvenor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GCM Grosvenor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GCM Grosvenor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 187.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.4 M |
Complementary Tools for GCM Stock analysis
When running GCM Grosvenor's price analysis, check to measure GCM Grosvenor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GCM Grosvenor is operating at the current time. Most of GCM Grosvenor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GCM Grosvenor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GCM Grosvenor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GCM Grosvenor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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