GCM Grosvenor Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| GCMG Stock | USD 12.04 0.75 6.64% |
GCM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of GCM Grosvenor's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 16th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of GCM Grosvenor's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GCM Grosvenor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GCM Grosvenor from the perspective of GCM Grosvenor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.55. GCM Grosvenor after-hype prediction price | USD 12.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections. GCM Grosvenor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GCM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GCM using various technical indicators. When you analyze GCM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GCM Grosvenor Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GCM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GCM Grosvenor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GCM Grosvenor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GCM Grosvenor | GCM Grosvenor Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GCM Grosvenor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GCM Grosvenor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GCM Grosvenor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.33 and 14.73, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GCM Grosvenor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GCM Grosvenor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.028 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1788 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.55 |
Predictive Modules for GCM Grosvenor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GCM Grosvenor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GCM Grosvenor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GCM Grosvenor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GCM Grosvenor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GCM Grosvenor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GCM Grosvenor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GCM Grosvenor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GCM Grosvenor's historical news coverage. GCM Grosvenor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.32 and 14.72, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GCM Grosvenor is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GCM Grosvenor is based on 3 months time horizon.
GCM Grosvenor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GCM Grosvenor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GCM Grosvenor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GCM Grosvenor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.04 | 12.02 | 0.25 |
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GCM Grosvenor Hype Timeline
GCM Grosvenor is currently traded for 12.04. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. GCM is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.02. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on GCM Grosvenor is about 8437.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.03. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. GCM Grosvenor last dividend was issued on the 2nd of March 2026. The entity had 1:1 split on the 18th of November 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections.GCM Grosvenor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GCM Grosvenor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GCM Grosvenor's future price movements. Getting to know how GCM Grosvenor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GCM Grosvenor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SII | Sprott Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.46 | 0.19 | 4.64 | (4.01) | 14.15 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.13 | (2.57) | 5.99 | |
| BBT | Beacon Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.19 | 3.60 | (1.85) | 8.68 | |
| BUR | Burford Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | 0.05 | 3.01 | (3.36) | 11.78 | |
| PAX | Patria Investments | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.75 | (3.13) | 10.07 | |
| ECC | Eagle Point Credit | (0.05) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.69 | (4.87) | 11.74 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.01 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| OXSQ | Oxford Square Capital | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.75 | (2.66) | 7.32 | |
| BBUC | Brookfield Business Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | 0.02 | 3.21 | (2.63) | 10.90 | |
| GRAB | Grab Holdings | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.41 | (3.94) | 12.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for GCM Grosvenor
For every potential investor in GCM, whether a beginner or expert, GCM Grosvenor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GCM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GCM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GCM Grosvenor's price trends.GCM Grosvenor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GCM Grosvenor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GCM Grosvenor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GCM Grosvenor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GCM Grosvenor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GCM Grosvenor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GCM Grosvenor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GCM Grosvenor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GCM Grosvenor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Indicators
The analysis of GCM Grosvenor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GCM Grosvenor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gcm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GCM Grosvenor
The number of cover stories for GCM Grosvenor depends on current market conditions and GCM Grosvenor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GCM Grosvenor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GCM Grosvenor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GCM Grosvenor Short Properties
GCM Grosvenor's future price predictability will typically decrease when GCM Grosvenor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GCM Grosvenor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GCM Grosvenor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GCM Grosvenor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 197.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 242.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in GCM Stock please use our How to Invest in GCM Grosvenor guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Can Asset Management & Custody Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does GCM have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GCM Grosvenor. Market participants price GCM higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating GCM Grosvenor demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
GCM Grosvenor's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on GCM's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate GCM Grosvenor's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since GCM Grosvenor's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GCM Grosvenor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GCM Grosvenor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GCM Grosvenor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.