Granite Construction Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
GVA Stock | USD 92.37 0.16 0.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.38 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.22 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.3732 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.2948 | Wall Street Target Price 99 |
Using Granite Construction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granite Construction Incorporated from the perspective of Granite Construction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Granite Construction using Granite Construction's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Granite using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Granite Construction's stock price.
Granite Construction Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Granite Construction's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Granite Construction Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Granite Construction's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Granite Construction stock will not fluctuate a lot when Granite Construction's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Granite Construction to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Granite because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Granite Construction after-hype prediction price | USD 92.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Granite contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Granite Construction Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Granite Construction trading at USD 92.37, that is roughly USD 0.0289 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Granite Construction's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Granite Construction Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Granite |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Granite Construction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granite Construction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granite Construction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Granite Construction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Granite Construction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Granite Construction's historical news coverage. Granite Construction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.02 and 93.82, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Granite Construction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Granite Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.
Granite Construction Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granite Construction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granite Construction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granite Construction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.40 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 8 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
92.37 | 92.42 | 0.05 |
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Granite Construction Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 Granite Construction is traded for 92.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Granite is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 92.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Granite Construction is about 173.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.51. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.51 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 43.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 516.26 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Granite Construction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Granite Construction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Granite Construction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granite Construction's future price movements. Getting to know how Granite Construction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granite Construction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
EME | EMCOR Group | 2.31 | 10 per month | 1.81 | 0.11 | 3.31 | (2.67) | 11.47 | |
FIX | Comfort Systems USA | 1.83 | 11 per month | 2.60 | 0.12 | 5.28 | (3.62) | 13.29 | |
PRIM | Primoris Services | (4.03) | 13 per month | 1.50 | 0.19 | 4.09 | (2.60) | 19.70 | |
ROAD | Construction Partners | 2.42 | 12 per month | 2.11 | 0.12 | 5.22 | (3.49) | 20.13 | |
MYRG | MYR Group | 3.97 | 8 per month | 1.85 | 0.13 | 5.71 | (3.54) | 19.36 | |
MTRX | Matrix Service Co | 0.18 | 6 per month | 1.86 | 0.13 | 4.24 | (2.53) | 20.59 | |
APG | Api Group Corp | (0.33) | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0.11 | 3.35 | (2.32) | 9.79 | |
GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | (0.12) | 7 per month | 1.97 | 0.02 | 3.28 | (3.66) | 13.21 | |
KBR | KBR Inc | (2.00) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.53 | (2.87) | 16.90 | |
DY | Dycom Industries | (0.04) | 10 per month | 3.10 | 0.01 | 4.76 | (4.75) | 19.59 | |
MTZ | MasTec Inc | 3.40 | 12 per month | 1.63 | 0.15 | 3.72 | (2.44) | 11.51 | |
TPC | Tutor Perini | (0.58) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.18 | (4.60) | 20.69 | |
STRL | Sterling Construction | 3.48 | 8 per month | 2.20 | 0.07 | 5.83 | (3.36) | 17.79 |
Granite Construction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Granite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Granite Construction Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Granite Construction stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Granite Construction Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Granite Construction based on analysis of Granite Construction hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Granite Construction's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Granite Construction's related companies. 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0102 | 0.009199 | 0.0127 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.42 |
Story Coverage note for Granite Construction
The number of cover stories for Granite Construction depends on current market conditions and Granite Construction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granite Construction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granite Construction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Granite Construction Short Properties
Granite Construction's future price predictability will typically decrease when Granite Construction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Granite Construction Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.6 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 624.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Granite Stock analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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