Granite Construction Incorporated Stock Price Prediction

GVA Stock  USD 86.87  0.31  0.36%   
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Granite Construction's share price is approaching 40. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Granite Construction, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 40

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Granite Construction's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Granite Construction Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Granite Construction's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.42
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.52)
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.2951
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.5397
Wall Street Target Price
103
Using Granite Construction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granite Construction Incorporated from the perspective of Granite Construction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Granite Construction using Granite Construction's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Granite using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Granite Construction's stock price.

Granite Construction Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Granite Construction's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Granite. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Granite Construction stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
77.5457
Short Percent
0.1514
Short Ratio
9.09
Shares Short Prior Month
4.6 M
50 Day MA
90.773

Granite Construction Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Granite Construction's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Granite. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Granite can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Granite Construction Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Granite Construction's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Granite Construction.

Granite Construction Implied Volatility

    
  0.7  
Granite Construction's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Granite Construction Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Granite Construction's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Granite Construction stock will not fluctuate a lot when Granite Construction's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Granite Construction to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Granite because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Granite Construction after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 87.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Granite contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Granite Construction Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0438% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Granite Construction trading at USD 86.87, that is roughly USD 0.038 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Granite Construction's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Granite Construction Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Granite Construction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.1894.4395.87
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
90.0999.00109.89
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.48-0.46-0.43
Details

Granite Construction After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Granite Construction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granite Construction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granite Construction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Granite Construction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Granite Construction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Granite Construction's historical news coverage. Granite Construction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 85.59 and 88.47, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
86.87
87.03
After-hype Price
88.47
Upside
Granite Construction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Granite Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.

Granite Construction Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granite Construction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granite Construction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granite Construction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16 
1.44
  0.16 
  0.02 
10 Events / Month
10 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
86.87
87.03
0.18 
146.94  
Notes

Granite Construction Hype Timeline

On the 16th of February 2025 Granite Construction is traded for 86.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Granite is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 87.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 146.94%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Granite Construction is about 1366.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.85. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.01 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 140.44 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 572.7 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Granite Construction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Granite Construction Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Granite Construction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granite Construction's future price movements. Getting to know how Granite Construction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granite Construction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EMEEMCOR Group(5.28)10 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.62 (4.18) 24.49 
FIXComfort Systems USA(2.48)11 per month 0.00 (0.04) 5.20 (6.52) 31.92 
PRIMPrimoris Services 1.72 10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 4.09 (3.70) 25.01 
ROADConstruction Partners 3.38 8 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.28 (5.81) 17.06 
MYRGMYR Group(1.55)7 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.57 (3.74) 18.19 
MTRXMatrix Service Co(0.10)8 per month 2.18  0.10  4.24 (3.45) 11.76 
APGApi Group Corp(0.05)10 per month 1.45  0.01  2.78 (2.32) 7.81 
GLDDGreat Lakes Dredge(0.14)10 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.98 (3.79) 9.19 
KBRKBR Inc(1.14)9 per month 0.00 (0.20) 2.29 (2.87) 14.62 
DYDycom Industries 1.60 10 per month 0.00 (0.02) 4.38 (4.75) 17.37 
MTZMasTec Inc 2.64 12 per month 0.00 (0.02) 4.58 (3.69) 22.88 
TPCTutor Perini(0.52)10 per month 0.00 (0.13) 3.38 (4.60) 14.45 
STRLSterling Construction 0.55 8 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.54 (5.93) 31.34 

Granite Construction Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Granite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Granite Construction Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Granite Construction stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Granite Construction Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Granite Construction based on analysis of Granite Construction hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Granite Construction's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Granite Construction's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.01020.0059320.005635
Price To Sales Ratio0.640.961.01

Story Coverage note for Granite Construction

The number of cover stories for Granite Construction depends on current market conditions and Granite Construction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granite Construction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granite Construction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Granite Construction Short Properties

Granite Construction's future price predictability will typically decrease when Granite Construction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Granite Construction Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding52.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments585.6 M

Complementary Tools for Granite Stock analysis

When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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