James River Group Stock Price Prediction
| JRVR Stock | USD 4.46 0.01 0.22% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.43 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.42) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5748 | Wall Street Target Price 8.15 |
Using James River hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of James River Group from the perspective of James River response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in James River to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying James because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
James River after-hype prediction price | USD 4.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
James |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of James River's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
James River After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of James River at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in James River or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of James River, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
James River Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting James River's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on James River's historical news coverage. James River's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.42 and 8.64, respectively. We have considered James River's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
James River is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of James River Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
James River Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as James River is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading James River backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with James River, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 4.11 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.46 | 4.53 | 1.80 |
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James River Hype Timeline
James River Group is currently traded for 4.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. James is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.8%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.65%. The volatility of related hype on James River is about 1689.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.30. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 812.01 M. Net Loss for the year was (107.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 268.88 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out James River Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.James River Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to James River's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict James River's future price movements. Getting to know how James River's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how James River may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.06) | 5 per month | 1.02 | 0.06 | 2.46 | (1.95) | 11.24 | |
| ITIC | Investors Title | (3.12) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.15 | 3.89 | (2.34) | 12.40 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | (1.03) | 6 per month | 0.87 | 0.1 | 2.32 | (2.12) | 12.74 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.49 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.88 | (2.14) | 13.14 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.34 | (0.23) | 0.74 | (0.56) | 3.36 | |
| AMBC | Ambac Financial Group | (0.14) | 7 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 3.27 | (2.90) | 16.30 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 1.62 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.1 | 2.89 | (2.50) | 9.67 | |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | 0.28 | 8 per month | 1.66 | (0.02) | 2.12 | (2.36) | 8.56 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.18) | 7 per month | 2.25 | (0.06) | 2.47 | (2.24) | 11.88 |
James River Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine James price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for James using various technical indicators. When you analyze James charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About James River Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of James River stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as James River Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of James River based on analysis of James River hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to James River's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to James River's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0429 | 0.0178 | 0.0525 | 0.0501 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.3 | 0.96 | 0.43 | 0.41 |
Story Coverage note for James River
The number of cover stories for James River depends on current market conditions and James River's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that James River is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about James River's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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James River Short Properties
James River's future price predictability will typically decrease when James River's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of James River Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential James River's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. James River's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 M |
Additional Tools for James Stock Analysis
When running James River's price analysis, check to measure James River's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy James River is operating at the current time. Most of James River's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of James River's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move James River's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of James River to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.