Medifast Inc Stock Price Prediction
| MED Stock | USD 18.41 0.11 0.60% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.19) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.77 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3 | Wall Street Target Price 16.5 |
Using MEDIFAST INC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MEDIFAST INC from the perspective of MEDIFAST INC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MEDIFAST INC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MEDIFAST because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MEDIFAST INC after-hype prediction price | USD 18.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MEDIFAST |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEDIFAST INC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MEDIFAST INC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MEDIFAST INC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MEDIFAST INC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MEDIFAST INC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MEDIFAST INC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MEDIFAST INC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MEDIFAST INC's historical news coverage. MEDIFAST INC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.80 and 21.04, respectively. We have considered MEDIFAST INC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MEDIFAST INC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MEDIFAST INC is based on 3 months time horizon.
MEDIFAST INC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MEDIFAST INC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MEDIFAST INC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MEDIFAST INC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.62 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.41 | 18.42 | 0.05 |
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MEDIFAST INC Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November MEDIFAST INC is traded for 18.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MEDIFAST is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on MEDIFAST INC is about 2050.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.41. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.07 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 99.42 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.14 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out MEDIFAST INC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MEDIFAST INC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MEDIFAST INC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MEDIFAST INC's future price movements. Getting to know how MEDIFAST INC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MEDIFAST INC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROL | Rollins | (0.57) | 9 per month | 1.77 | (0.08) | 1.53 | (2.26) | 9.52 | |
| CSV | Carriage Services | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.84 | 0.11 | 2.84 | (2.10) | 16.85 | |
| SCI | Service International | 0.97 | 8 per month | 0.74 | 0.07 | 1.89 | (1.37) | 8.36 | |
| BFAM | Bright Horizons Family | (1.29) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.83 | (2.27) | 14.64 | |
| HRB | HR Block | 0.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.14 | (1.60) | 11.70 | |
| DSEY | Diversey Holdings | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.49 | (0.36) | 1.22 | |
| MCW | Mister Car Wash | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.41 | 0.08 | 4.63 | (3.20) | 16.56 | |
| TRNR | Interactive Strength Common | (1.20) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 12.98 | (21.20) | 74.44 | |
| EM | Smart Share Global | 0.00 | 4 per month | 3.24 | (0.01) | 7.04 | (5.66) | 36.17 |
MEDIFAST INC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MEDIFAST price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MEDIFAST using various technical indicators. When you analyze MEDIFAST charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MEDIFAST INC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MEDIFAST INC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MEDIFAST INC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MEDIFAST INC based on analysis of MEDIFAST INC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MEDIFAST INC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MEDIFAST INC's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.026 | 0.0555 | 0.0998 | 0.1 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.61 | 0.81 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
Story Coverage note for MEDIFAST INC
The number of cover stories for MEDIFAST INC depends on current market conditions and MEDIFAST INC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MEDIFAST INC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MEDIFAST INC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MEDIFAST INC Short Properties
MEDIFAST INC's future price predictability will typically decrease when MEDIFAST INC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MEDIFAST INC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MEDIFAST INC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MEDIFAST INC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 150 M |
Complementary Tools for MEDIFAST Stock analysis
When running MEDIFAST INC's price analysis, check to measure MEDIFAST INC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MEDIFAST INC is operating at the current time. Most of MEDIFAST INC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MEDIFAST INC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MEDIFAST INC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MEDIFAST INC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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