Medallion Financial Corp Stock Price Patterns
| MFIN Stock | USD 10.36 0.05 0.48% |
Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.48 | Wall Street Target Price 12 |
Using Medallion Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medallion Financial Corp from the perspective of Medallion Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Medallion Financial using Medallion Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Medallion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Medallion Financial's stock price.
Medallion Financial Implied Volatility | 1.21 |
Medallion Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Medallion Financial Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Medallion Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Medallion Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Medallion Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Medallion Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Medallion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Medallion Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 10.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Medallion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Medallion Financial Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0756% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Medallion Financial trading at USD 10.36, that is roughly USD 0.007835 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Medallion Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Medallion Financial Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Medallion Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medallion Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medallion Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medallion Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medallion Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medallion Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medallion Financial's historical news coverage. Medallion Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.71 and 12.15, respectively. We have considered Medallion Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medallion Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medallion Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medallion Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medallion Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medallion Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medallion Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.72 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.36 | 10.43 | 0.19 |
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Medallion Financial Hype Timeline
Medallion Financial Corp is now traded for 10.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Medallion is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Medallion Financial is about 9052.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.36. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 291.79 M. Net Income was 41.92 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 256.08 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Medallion Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Medallion Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medallion Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medallion Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Medallion Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medallion Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YRD | Yirendai | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.77 | (3.75) | 13.64 | |
| FOA | Finance of America | (0.60) | 9 per month | 2.58 | (0.03) | 3.18 | (4.10) | 12.24 | |
| LPRO | Open Lending Corp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 3.85 | (0.01) | 8.50 | (5.97) | 22.84 | |
| OPRT | Oportun Financial Corp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 2.82 | 0.02 | 3.77 | (4.78) | 31.57 | |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.45 | (0.02) | 2.70 | (1.81) | 7.58 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.90 | 0 | 2.51 | (2.97) | 9.96 | |
| CPSS | Consumer Portfolio Services | 0.26 | 7 per month | 2.53 | 0.03 | 4.04 | (4.17) | 12.35 | |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp | 0.37 | 9 per month | 2.10 | (0.01) | 4.27 | (3.42) | 9.67 | |
| SUIG | SUI Group Holdings | (0.10) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 11.38 | (10.61) | 30.00 | |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | (0.20) | 8 per month | 0.70 | 0.16 | 2.88 | (1.49) | 6.23 |
Medallion Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medallion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medallion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medallion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Medallion Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Medallion Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Medallion Financial Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Medallion Financial based on analysis of Medallion Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Medallion Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Medallion Financial's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0347 | 0.0444 | 0.0399 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
Pair Trading with Medallion Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Medallion Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Medallion Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Medallion Stock
Moving against Medallion Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Medallion Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Medallion Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Medallion Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Medallion Financial Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Medallion Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Medallion Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Medallion Financial Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Medallion Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Medallion Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Will Consumer Finance sector continue expanding? Could Medallion diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Medallion Financial. Expected growth trajectory for Medallion significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Medallion Financial data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share 1.71 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.089 |
Medallion Financial Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Medallion's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Medallion Financial's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Medallion Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Medallion Financial's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Medallion Financial represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Medallion Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.