Valaris Stock Price Prediction
| VAL Stock | USD 47.94 0.04 0.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.176 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.2522 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4073 | Wall Street Target Price 58 |
Using Valaris hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valaris from the perspective of Valaris response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valaris using Valaris' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valaris using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valaris' stock price.
Valaris Short Interest
An investor who is long Valaris may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valaris and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valaris with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 60.1232 | Short Percent 0.1543 | Short Ratio 6.35 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.1 M | 50 Day MA 45.6622 |
Valaris Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valaris' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valaris. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valaris can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valaris. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valaris' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valaris.
Valaris Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Valaris' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valaris stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valaris' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valaris stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valaris' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valaris to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valaris because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Valaris after-hype prediction price | USD 47.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valaris contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valaris will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Valaris trading at USD 47.94, that is roughly USD 0.0159 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valaris' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valaris options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Valaris |
Valaris After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valaris at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valaris or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valaris, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valaris Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valaris' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valaris' historical news coverage. Valaris' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.42 and 50.52, respectively. We have considered Valaris' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valaris is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valaris is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valaris Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valaris is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valaris backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valaris, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.53 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
47.94 | 47.97 | 0.02 |
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Valaris Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Valaris is traded for 47.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Valaris is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 47.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Valaris is about 631.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.93. About 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.64. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Valaris recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.37. The entity had 2:1 split on the 11th of April 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Valaris Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Valaris Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valaris' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valaris' future price movements. Getting to know how Valaris' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valaris may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Valaris Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valaris price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valaris using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valaris charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Valaris Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Valaris stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valaris, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valaris based on analysis of Valaris hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valaris's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valaris's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 9.86E-4 | 9.36E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.56 | 1.32 |
Story Coverage note for Valaris
The number of cover stories for Valaris depends on current market conditions and Valaris' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valaris is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valaris' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valaris Short Properties
Valaris' future price predictability will typically decrease when Valaris' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valaris often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valaris' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valaris' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 620.5 M |
Check out Valaris Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Valaris Stock please use our How to buy in Valaris Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Energy Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valaris. If investors know Valaris will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valaris listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.176 | Earnings Share 14.37 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.413 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Valaris is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valaris that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valaris' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valaris' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valaris' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valaris' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valaris' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valaris is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valaris' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.