Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Analysis
| GPK Stock | USD 10.63 -0.40 -3.63% |
At the current market price of $10.63, GPK trades below the analyst target price of $11.79. This stock analysis anchors on intrinsic value — what GPK is worth based on fundamentals rather than market sentiment. GPK carries leverage that is elevated relative to materials peers, which amplifies both the upside from margin expansion and the downside from earnings pressure.
GPK holds a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.81 relative to materials peers. Based on figures reported as of December 31, 2025, Net Debt is broadly unchanged at $5.31 billion, while Net Debt To EBITDA remains stable at 3.96x. Given Graphic Packaging's cash position, gross debt may overstate financial risk, making net debt a more relevant indicator of balance sheet positioning. Asset vs Debt
Equity vs Debt
Price Book 0.97 | Price Sales 0.36 | Shares Float 291.03 million | Dividend Share 0.44 | Wall Street Target Price 11.79 |
Graphic Packaging debt-to-equity ratio measures how much of the capital base is funded by creditors versus shareholders. The quarterly trend in this ratio is more telling than a single reading — rising D/E signals expanding leverage, falling D/E signals deleveraging.
Graphic Packaging Quarterly Net Debt | $5.56 billion |
Graphic |
Stock Analysis Notes
About 99.0% of GPK shares are owned by institutional investors. GPK has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. Equities trading below book value may carry value potential, though margin and return quality should confirm. Graphic Packaging had its last dividend issued on the 13th of March 2026. GPK completed a 1.800-for-1 stock split on 3rd of January 2000. Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) recorded $0.24 in Intangibles To Total Assets, $11.8 billion in Total Assets, and a Return On Assets of 4.0%.Noncontrolling Interest In Consolidated Entity | $1.09 million |
Investor Insights and Alerts
| Graphic Packaging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Graphic Packaging has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Graphic Packaging's Piotroski F-Score indicates relatively stable underlying signals within the model framework, despite current profitability pressure | |
| On 8th of April 2026 Graphic Packaging paid $ 0.11 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY INVESTOR ALERT Investors With Large Losses in Graphic Packaging Holding Company Should Contact Bernstein Liebhard LLP To Discuss Their Rights |
Largest EPS Surprises
When Graphic Packaging reports EPS above analyst consensus, investors often revise their forward assumptions upward. A persistent pattern of beats can gradually rerate the stock's valuation multiple. For this stock, read EPS surprises with profitability quality and forward revisions.
| Reported | Fiscal Date | Estimated EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011-10-27 | 2011-09-30 | 0.1 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 10 | ||
2011-07-28 | 2011-06-30 | 0.1 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 10 | ||
2010-11-04 | 2010-09-30 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 12 |
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Scores
ESG scores for Graphic Packaging Holding track environmental, social, and governance factors that can affect operations and valuation over time. The business currently sits in the Consumer Cyclical sector and the Packaging & Containers industry. ESG data works best as a risk and quality layer rather than a standalone score.
Thematic Classifications
A thematic view of Graphic Packaging Holding is valuable because it lets investors test the idea inside a broader opportunity set instead of judging the security in isolation. The practical benefit is that this enables optimization around a trend, not just around one name that may or may not remain the best expression of that trend.
 | Macroaxis IndexMacroaxis power theme of selected equities with solid fundamentals |
Top Institutional Investors Holding Graphic Stock
At mid-cap scale, institutional coverage and secondary-market liquidity are typically well established. The holder split in Graphic Packaging Holding separates passive index allocation from active institutional positioning. The business currently sits in the Consumer Cyclical sector and the Packaging & Containers industry. Volume spikes around index rebalance dates warrant attention given the high institutional share.
| Shares | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2025-12-31 | 6.6 M | Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley Llc | 2025-12-31 | 6.2 M | Shapiro Capital Management Co Inc | 2025-12-31 | 5.9 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 5.7 M | Causeway Capital Management Llc | 2025-12-31 | 4.5 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2025-12-31 | 4.4 M | Norges Bank | 2025-12-31 | 3.6 M | Letko, Brosseau & Associates Inc. | 2025-12-31 | 3.5 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-12-31 | 3.4 M | Fuller & Thaler Asset Management Inc | 2025-12-31 | 37.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-12-31 | 29.4 M |
Market Capitalization
Graphic Packaging Holding market cap comes in at $3.15 billion, aligning the company with the mid-cap end of paper & plastic packaging products & materials. Related valuation data points include a workforce of about 23,000 people, enterprise value near $8.71 billion, and about 295.89 million shares outstanding.Profitability
Profitability analysis for Graphic Packaging Holding focuses on how well revenue converts into operating income, net income, and free cash flow. Annual revenue is about 8.62 billion. Comparing gross, operating, and net margins isolates where margin strength or pressure originates. GPK has Net Profit Margin of 3.0%. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 4.0%.| Last Reported | End Of Year Estimate | ||
| Return On Tangible Assets | 0.05 | 0.05 | |
| Return On Capital Employed | 0.09 | 0.06 | |
| Return On Assets | 4.00% | 4.00% | |
| Return On Equity | 13.00% | 14.00% |
Management Efficiency
GPK has Return on Asset of 3.8% suggesting that deployed capital is earning a positive return. This is on par with sector averages. Graphic Packaging also reports a return on shareholders' equity (ROE) of 8.55%, suggesting that equity holders are earning on their invested capital.| Last Reported | End Of Year Estimate | ||
| Book Value Per Share | 11.25 | 8.91 | |
| Tangible Book Value Per Share | 2.03 | 2.19 | |
| Price Book Value Ratio | 1.34x | 1.62x | |
| Enterprise Value Multiple | 7.29x | 6.19x | |
| Price Fair Value | 1.34x | 1.62x | |
| Enterprise Value | $449.73 million | $332.48 million |
Management execution at Graphic Packaging Holding is evaluated by whether strategy, financial discipline, and operating results are moving in the same direction. This analysis evaluates whether leadership is improving the economics of the business in ways that can persist once the operating environment deteriorates.
Operating Margin | Long Term Debt Total | Three Month Return -20.55 | Short Long Term Debt Total | Ten Year Return -19.04 |
Technical Drivers
As of the 10th of May, Graphic Packaging registers 10.63 per share in market pricing. Volatility and momentum metrics display market risk adjusted performance of -0.95, and Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.09. Quantitative signals are calculated from volatility clustering and momentum shifts. Relative strength metrics are assessed within peer group data.Price Movement Analysis - Bollinger Bands
This analysis covers twenty-five data points across the selected time horizon. The Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average adjusts its smoothing factor based on Graphic Packaging Holding price efficiency — moving quickly when the trend is strong and slowing when price action is noisy. This adaptive behavior reduces whipsaws during ranging periods while remaining responsive during directional moves.
Insider Trading Activities
Insider disclosures for Graphic Packaging Holding show how people closest to the business are behaving as market expectations change. The goal is to tell routine pay-related sales apart from trades that reflect genuine conviction.
Elizabeth Spence over a month ago Disposition of 4831 shares by Elizabeth Spence of Graphic Packaging at 12.42 subject to Rule 16 b-3 | ||
Elizabeth Spence over a month ago Disposition of 4831 shares by Elizabeth Spence of Graphic Packaging at 12.42 subject to Rule 16 b-3 | ||
Charles Lischer over a month ago Disposition of 2809 shares by Charles Lischer of Graphic Packaging at 12.42 subject to Rule 16 b-3 | ||
Stafeil Jeffrey over two months ago Insider Trading | ||
Scott LeBeau over two months ago Acquisition by Scott Le Beau of 17191 shares of Graphic Packaging subject to Rule 16 b-3 | ||
Elizabeth Spence over two months ago Disposition of 11233 shares by Elizabeth Spence of Graphic Packaging subject to Rule 16 b-3 | ||
Fallan Scott over two months ago Insider Trading | ||
Fallan Scott over two months ago Insider Trading | ||
Fallan Scott over three months ago Insider Trading | ||
Fallan Scott over three months ago Insider Trading | ||
Fallan Scott over three months ago Insider Trading | ||
Fallan Scott over three months ago Insider Trading |
Outstanding Bonds
Corporate bonds issued by Graphic Packaging Holding matter because they shape interest expense, maturity risk, and the flexibility management has during tighter credit conditions. This is why bond analysis is not just a credit exercise; it also informs equity holders about solvency, optionality, and future capital-allocation pressure.
| MPLX LP 4125 Corp BondUS55336VAK61 | View | |
| Graphic Packaging International Corp BondUS38869AAB35 | View | |
| GRAPHIC PACKAGING INTL Corp BondUS38869AAC18 | View | |
| Graphic Packaging International Corp BondUS38869AAA51 | View | |
| US38869AAD90 Corp BondUS38869AAD90 | View |
Predictive Daily Indicators
Intraday indicators for Graphic Packaging Holding suit investors who need a shorter decision cycle and tighter control over timing. The key question is whether the signal helps manage exposure in real time, not whether it predicts every tick.
Corporate Filings
8K | 5th of May 2026 Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about | |
13A | 1st of May 2026 An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G | |
13A | 30th of April 2026 The form used by investors holding more than 5% of a company's stock, to report their beneficial ownership pursuant to Rule 13d-1 or Rule 13d-2 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | |
13A | 29th of April 2026 The form used by investors holding more than 5% of a company's stock, to report their beneficial ownership pursuant to Rule 13d-1 or Rule 13d-2 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | |
| 28th of April 2026 Other Reports | ||
| 15th of April 2026 Other Reports | ||
13A | 7th of April 2026 An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G | |
F4 | 2nd of April 2026 The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities |
Forecast Models
A forecast for Graphic Packaging Holding starts with historical data. Prices often signal trend and momentum shifts before fundamentals catch up. Financial data rarely stays stable for long, so the model is best used as a probability tool, not a price promise.Financial Strength and Earnings Quality Indicators
Graphic Packaging Holding financial ratings play a critical role in determining how much Graphic Packaging has to pay to access credit markets, i.e., the amount of interest on their issued debt. The threshold between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings has important market implications for Graphic Packaging's borrowing costs.| Piotroski F Score | 9 | Very Strong | View |
| Beneish M Score | -2.18 | Possible Manipulator | View |
Debt to Cash Allocation
Total debt stands at approximately $5.57 billion with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.81. Graphic Packaging has a current ratio of 1.27, demonstrating that it has limited short-term liquidity flexibility relative to its financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt serves as one financing mechanism for Graphic, though the impact on returns depends on execution and market conditions.Total Assets Over Time
Assets Financed by Debt
Debt finances 36.0% of GPK's total assets — a relatively low share of the asset base, though leverage can still appear elevated relative to peers when measured against equity rather than total assets.Graphic Packaging Debt Ratio | 36.0 |
Corporate Bonds Issued
Graphic Short Long Term Debt Total
Short Long Term Debt Total | $5.85 billion |
Stock Analysis Methodology
How does Graphic Packaging compare on solvency and earnings quality? The indicators below frame the answer. Balance sheet indicators include debt-to-equity of 2.81 and current ratio of 1.3. Financial distress probability is estimated at 2%, indicating low near-term solvency risk.
Graphic Packaging Holding data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Current Graphic Analyst Rating Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 11.79 | Buy | 13 | Odds |
The summary for Graphic Packaging Holding includes current and past analyst recommendations. Consensus averages are included alongside the recommendation view. Professional analyst coverage of Graphic Packaging Holding provides individual investors with access to institutional-quality research. The spread between the highest and lowest Graphic price targets reflects the degree of analytical disagreement.
Graphic Stock Analysis Indicators
Diagnostics snapshot includes 19 indicators such as Begin Period Cash Flow, Long Term Debt, Common Stock Shares Outstanding.
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 157 million | |
| Long Term Debt | 5.02 billion | |
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 296.9 million | |
| Total Stockholder Equity | 3.34 billion | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -745 million | |
| Tax Provision | 139 million | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | -0.48 | |
| Property Plant And Equipment Net | 5.68 billion | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 261 million | |
| Cash | 261 million | |
| Accounts Payable | 1.03 billion | |
| Net Debt | 5.31 billion | |
| 50 Day M A | 9.9556 | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 2.24 billion | |
| Other Operating Expenses | 7.75 billion | |
| Non Current Assets Total | 8.87 billion | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 14.1643 | |
| Non Currrent Assets Other | 448 million | |
| Stock Based Compensation | 2 million |