CNO Financial Valuation Analysis
| CNO Stock | USD 46.02 0.12 0.26% |
Below Model Estimate
Today
The intrinsic value estimate for CNO Financial Group is based on a 3 months horizon. Elevated leverage (1.77x debt-to-equity) suggests balance sheet risk impacting valuation. Extending the time horizon generally improves valuation stability.
The valuation of CNO Financial is tested here against earnings multiples, cash-flow models, and asset-based benchmarks. Cross-checking more than one valuation method usually gives a more reliable estimate than relying on a single framework. Valuation models range from simple P/E comparisons to multi-stage DCF models for CNO Financial.
Main Profitability Drivers
CNO Financial's net margin stands at 5.37%, with operating margin at 4.90%. Non-operating gains or tax benefits lift CNO Financial's net margin 0.47 percentage points above its operating margin. CNO Financial's revenue base of $4.49 billion yielded $1.76 billion in gross profit at a 39.1% gross margin, while net income came in at $229.3 million. CNO Financial's return on equity of 8.26% and return on assets of 0.62% gauge how effectively the company converts invested capital into earnings. CNO Financial's profitability picture is mixed, with some metrics improving while others show pressure. The full picture is available through CNO Financial's complete profitability review to assess how these metrics compare over time.
Price Book 1.62 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 0.95 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 1.63 |
CNO Financial Cash | $519.21 million |
Cash stood at $956.1 million as of December 31, 2025.
As an insurance company generating revenue through premiums, underwriting, and investment income, CNO Financial's financial profile reflects the economics of that model. As a value-leaning stock in Insurance, its valuation multiples sit below broader market averages. Below, the key valuation drivers are examined to determine what the market is pricing and whether the underlying data supports it.
Total Value Analysis
From a capital-structure perspective, CNO Financial Group is being framed with enterprise value of 7.37 billion, market capitalization of 4.3 billion, debt obligations near 4.05 billion, and cash-equivalent resources of 987.3 million as of latest reporting. Reviewing CNO Financial fundamentals clarifies whether the enterprise-value composition reflects durable capital structure or temporary balance-sheet effects.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash & Equivalents |
7.37 billion | 4.3 billion | 4.05 billion | 987.3 million |
Investor Information
About 97.0% of CNO shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. CNO has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.62. Equities trading at this Price to Book (P/B) range reflect investor confidence in earnings power beyond book value. CNO Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.29. CNO had its last dividend issued on the 10th of June 2026. The firm completed a 2-for-1 stock split on 12th of February 1997. Capital allocation and earnings structure point to CNO Financial having moderate financial flexibility with thin profitability. Return on assets remains in positive territory, consistent with the company's business model and scale.| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | $625.22 million | $675.7 million |
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Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. CNO Financial has an asset utilization ratio of 11.57 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.12 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that CNO Financial Group is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
On the current custom levered DCF assumptions, CNO Financial Group is valued at about 125.79 per share while the stock changes hands near 46.02. Relative to the modeled value, the stock sits roughly 173.3% lower. Current assumptions include 6.28% WACC, 2.0% perpetual growth, and about 724.79 Million of next-period free cash flow. Discounted forecast cash flows sum to about 2.91 Billion before the terminal component, and present terminal value still represents roughly 81.1% of enterprise value. A divergence of this magnitude signals that the model output is heavily assumption-dependent. Since 81.1% of enterprise value rests on the terminal component, the estimate is particularly sensitive to long-term growth, margin trajectory, and discount rate assumptions.Model Value / Share
125.79
Equity value per share from the current custom levered DCF summary row.
Market Price
46.02
Current market price used by the same scenario.
Model Upside
173.3%
Market price sits below the model output.
WACC / LT Growth
6.28% / 2.0%
Forecast horizon: 2021 to 2030Terminal value share of EV: 81.1%
CNO Financial Market Price vs. Intrinsic Value
This chart compares observed market pricing with the model-derived equity value per share across forecast periods. It also illustrates the relative premium or discount, expressed as a percentage difference between market valuation and modeled intrinsic value.
Projected Revenue and Levered Free Cash Flow
Revenue and levered free cash flow projections are presented in billions, outlining the expected financial trajectory over the modeled horizon.
Key Model Assumptions
The inputs below reflect the core assumptions applied in the valuation model, including growth expectations, discount rates, and capital structure considerations.
| Input | Current Value |
|---|---|
| Weighted Average Cost of Capital | 6.28% |
| Long-Term Growth Rate | 2.0% |
| Cost of Equity | 7.95% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.45% |
| Debt Weighting | 47.38% |
| Equity Weighting | 52.62% |
| Net Debt | 3.1 billion |
| Enterprise Value | 15.39 billion |
| Present Terminal Value | 12.48 billion |
| Terminal Value Share of EV | 81.1% |
Forecast Detail and Valuation Progression
This table presents the underlying forecast data used in the valuation, including revenue, cash flow generation, discounting effects, and the resulting per-share value across each projected period.
| Year | Revenue | Revenue Growth | Free Cash Flow | PV of LFCF | Equity Value / Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4.12 billion | 0.00% | 598.3 million | 0 | 125.77 |
| 2022 | 3.58 billion | -13.23% | 495.4 million | 0 | 125.87 |
| 2023 | 4.15 billion | 15.94% | 582.9 million | 0 | 125.82 |
| 2024 | 4.45 billion | 7.21% | 627.7 million | 0 | 125.75 |
| 2025 | 4.49 billion | 0.94% | 675.7 million | 0 | 125.72 |
| 2026 | 4.51 billion | 0.39% | 684.43 million | 643.97 million | 125.79 |
| 2027 | 4.51 billion | 0.16% | 691.63 million | 612.28 million | 125.79 |
| 2028 | 4.52 billion | 0.07% | 698.17 million | 581.54 million | 125.79 |
| 2029 | 4.52 billion | 0.03% | 704.44 million | 552.07 million | 125.79 |
| 2030 | 4.52 billion | 0.01% | 710.57 million | 523.96 million | 125.79 |
Profitability Analysis
An analysis of CNO Financial's profitability data, CNO Financial Group is profitable with a net margin of 5.37% and operating margin of 4.9%, reporting net income of 229.3 million. Return on equity stands at 8.26%. Profitability trends are stable, with recent metrics holding near prior-year levels.Net Income | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 92.9 million | Current Value 37.7 million | Quarterly Volatility 248.1 million |
Macro event markers
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 47.00% | 44.79% |
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For CNO Financial Group, profitability analysis measures the relationship between revenue, cost structure, and bottom-line earnings. Net margin of 5.37% is adequate, though not at levels that typically signal strong pricing power. The breakdown below connects margin levels with asset efficiency and capital returns. CNO Financial reports return on equity of 8.26%, positive but not at levels that signal strong capital efficiency.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
EPS projections for CNO Financial aggregate analyst models into a benchmark against which actual results are measured. Return on equity of 9.76% provides context for how efficiently CNO Financial generates earnings from shareholder capital. The gap between CNO Financial's EPS and free cash flow per share signals how much of reported earnings converts to cash. CNO Financial's EPS estimates are updated as new analyst reports and company disclosures become available. The EPS consensus for CNO Financial Group reflects normalized analyst expectations. Comparing this estimate against the current net margin profile (5.37%), guidance revisions, and prior forecast error reveals whether the market is pricing in improvement, stability, or deterioration. CNO Financial reported estimated earnings of 1.01 in earnings per share on 30th of June 2026. Comparing this projection against historical actuals shows whether the consensus is trending toward or away from the company's recent earnings trajectory.Macro event markers
Earnings Estimation Breakdown
5 analysts contribute to the current consensus. The last reported EPS was 1.05 as of 31st of March 2026.
Last Reported EPS
1.01
Lowest
1.01
Expected EPS
1.01
Highest
Analyst estimate range around the current expected EPS projection.
Earnings Projection Consensus
| Number of Analysts | Historical Accuracy | Last Reported EPS | Estimated EPS for 30th of June 2026 | Current EPS (TTM) | |
| 5 | 81.68% | 1.05 | 1.01 | 2.56 |
Ownership Allocation
The majority of CNO Financial's outstanding shares are owned by institutions. Institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds, and asset managers typically hold large positions as part of their investment mandates, managing money on behalf of clients or beneficiaries. As a result, they are subject to reporting requirements and oversight rules - such as 13F filings and position disclosure thresholds - that do not apply to individual retail investors.Revenue and Profit Overview
CNO reported last year's revenue of $4.49 billion. Total Income to common stockholders was $229.3 million with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of $1.76 billion.Past Distributions to Stockholders
Studying the payout policy of the company clarifies how the company allocates capital. Analysts often examine dividend payments relative to free cash flow and net income trends. Income-focused investors may want to explore dividend payments.
| 24th of March 2026 | ||
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What This Indicates
A 6.89 earnings multiple signals caution about near-term earnings power, a discount the market routinely applies to lending and financial institutions navigating credit cycles, interest rate sensitivity, and regulatory capital requirements. In this context, the valuation reflects operating economics rather than a generalized growth or value signal. At 5.37%, the margin structure places CNO Financial in a range where operational efficiency improvements would have an outsized impact on earnings. Margins at this level are characteristic of the sector and consistent with the operating model. A 1.77 debt-to-equity ratio is expected for lending and financial institutions - the balance sheet IS the business, and leverage is the mechanism through which net interest income is generated. CNO Financial earns 8.26% on equity - positive but moderate, indicating productive capital deployment without the kind of returns that signal strong competitive advantages. Low valuation multiples are consistent with CNO Financial being priced as a value-oriented holding - the market expects limited growth, though rerating potential exists if operating trends improve. At these levels, the market is discounting constrained loan growth and stable but not improving credit performance. The key question is whether credit trends and origination volumes can inflect positively enough to challenge the skepticism embedded in the current pricing.
Combined Signal Overview
CNO Financial Group fits the profile of a lower-margin lending and financial institutions where revenue scale and cost discipline are critical to value creation, a positioning that shapes how lending and financial institutions are valued. The business is profitable, though margins point to limited pricing power or elevated cost pressure relative to revenue. The data points to a business where current multiples are less informative because underlying profitability has not been established. A re-rating depends on credit conditions, rate dynamics, and margin sustainability through the cycle.
These valuation inputs for CNO Financial Group should be revisited as new data and market conditions evolve. With leverage above industry norms, changes in interest costs or refinancing conditions can shift the valuation case materially.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
CNO Financial is a mid-cap equity in Life & Health Insurance, Insurance - Life, Financial Services categories. Sector-relative metrics refine price assessment. CNO Financial currently trades at P/B of 1.62, P/S of 0.95.
CNO Financial Group inputs come from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent reporting framework. Analyst projections are included when active coverage applies. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
The analysis above is generated by quantitative models and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for full details.
Financial data referenced in this analysis is derived from publicly available SEC filings, audited financial statements, and third-party market data providers. The intrinsic value estimate is generated by Macroaxis quantitative models that incorporate fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and risk metrics.
The methodology combines multiple analytical inputs:
- Fundamental analysis - financial statements, profitability ratios, debt structure, and cash flow metrics sourced from SEC filings and public financial reports
- Technical indicators - historical price patterns, momentum signals, and volatility measures
- Risk assessment - probability of bankruptcy models, market risk metrics, and downside scenario analysis
- Peer comparison - relative valuation against industry peers using standardized multiples
Model outputs are refreshed periodically as new financial data becomes available. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. The intrinsic value estimate reflects a point-in-time calculation and should be considered alongside other research and professional advice.
Data sourced from SEC filings (EDGAR), public financial statements, and market data providers.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Gabriel Shpitalnik, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Growth Indicators
The market case for CNO Financial Group appears tied more to rebuilding earnings power than to investors paying up for a high-expectation growth profile. This kind of analysis helps distinguish a genuine operating recovery from a lower-quality bounce that may not hold through a full cycle.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.76 million | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | 86.40% | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 9.7847 |
CNO Financial Current Valuation Indicators
Evaluating CNO Financial's value means testing whether the share price matches the economics of the actual business. The business currently sits in the Financial Services sector and the Insurance—Life industry. Current pricing suggests the market is discounting specific expectations about growth trajectory, margin stability, and capital allocation. Reported values are derived from company filings, audited financial statements, and market data, and are standardized within Macroaxis quantitative models for consistency. Model outputs reflect a point-in-time estimate based on available data and assumptions and should be interpreted alongside changes in operating performance, market conditions, and forward expectations.