Triumph Group Valuation

TGIDelisted Stock  USD 287.40  5.40  1.91%   
At this time, the company appears to be overvalued. Triumph Group has a current Real Value of $191.64 per share. The regular price of the company is $287.4. Our model measures the value of Triumph Group from inspecting the company fundamentals such as Shares Owned By Insiders of 2.28 %, return on asset of 0.0579, and Current Valuation of 2.73 B as well as reviewing its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy.
Overvalued
Today
287.40
Please note that Triumph's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of Triumph Group is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Triumph's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
Since Triumph is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Triumph Stock. However, Triumph's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  287.4 Real  191.64 Hype  290.7 Naive  311.87
The intrinsic value of Triumph's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow or dividend analysis. That value may differ from its market price, which is determined by factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, headlines, and other external factors that may influence Triumph's stock price.
189.90
Downside
191.64
Real Value
316.14
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Triumph Group helps investors to forecast how Triumph stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Triumph more accurately as focusing exclusively on Triumph's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
276.68284.60292.52
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
258.66290.70292.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
310.13311.87313.61
Details

Triumph Total Value Analysis

Triumph Group is at this time forecasted to have company total value of 2.73 B with market capitalization of 2.02 B, debt of 987.03 M, and cash on hands of 277.16 M. Please note that company total value may be misleading and is a subject to accounting gimmicks. We encourage investors to carefully check all of the Triumph fundamentals before making security assessment based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
2.73 B
2.02 B
987.03 M
277.16 M

Triumph Investor Information

About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2. Triumph Group last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2020. The entity had 2:1 split on the 15th of July 2011. Triumph Group is not in a good financial situation at the moment. It has a very high risk of going through financial straits in February.

Triumph Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Triumph has an asset utilization ratio of 77.57 percent. This signifies that the Company is making $0.78 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Triumph Group is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.

Triumph Ownership Allocation

The majority of Triumph Group outstanding shares are owned by institutional holders. These institutional investors are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to take positions in Triumph to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutions are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Triumph Group. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Triumph Group as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company.

Triumph Profitability Analysis

The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.26 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 40.87 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 398.14 M.

About Triumph Valuation

An absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to Triumph Stock, attempts to find the value of Triumph Group based on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Triumph's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Triumph's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Triumph. We calculate exposure to Triumph's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Triumph's related companies.
Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls, and distributes aerostructures, aircraft components, accessories, subassemblies, and systems worldwide. Triumph Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. Triumph operates under Aerospace Defense classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 5340 people.

Triumph Growth Indicators

Growth stocks usually refer to those companies expected to grow sales and earnings faster than the market average. Growth stocks typically don't pay dividends, often look expensive, and usually trading at a high P/E ratio. Nevertheless, such valuations could be relatively cheap if the company continues to grow, which will drive the share price up. However, since most investors are paying a high price for a growth stock, based on expectations, if those expectations are not fully realized, growth stocks can see dramatic declines.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding78 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.949
Forward Price Earnings14.7275
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Other Consideration for investing in Triumph Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Triumph Group check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Triumph's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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