Triumph Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TGIDelisted Stock  USD 287.40  5.40  1.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 311.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,306. Triumph Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Triumph's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 17th of January 2026 the value of rsi of Triumph's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Triumph's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Triumph Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Triumph hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Group from the perspective of Triumph response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 311.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,306.

Triumph after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 287.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

Triumph Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Triumph is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Triumph Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Triumph Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 311.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.40, mean absolute percentage error of 1,165, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,306.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triumph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triumph's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Triumph Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TriumphTriumph Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.1709
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation21.402
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.4824
SAESum of the absolute errors1305.5236
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Triumph Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Triumph. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Triumph

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
287.40287.40287.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
190.94190.94316.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Triumph. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Triumph's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Triumph's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Triumph Group.

Triumph Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triumph stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triumph could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triumph by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Triumph Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triumph stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triumph shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triumph stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triumph Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

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Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Other Consideration for investing in Triumph Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Triumph Group check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Triumph's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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