Triumph Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| TGI Stock | USD 19.27 0.17 0.89% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Triumph Group is 'Strong Buy'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Triumph's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Triumph Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Triumph and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Triumph Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
Triumph |
Execute Triumph Buy or Sell Advice
The Triumph recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Triumph Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Triumph Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Triumph's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Excited | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Triumph Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Triumph Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Triumph Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Triumph Group price target raised to 21 from 16 at Barclays - MSN |
Triumph Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Triumph's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Triumph's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Triumph daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Triumph Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Triumph returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Triumph.
| Mean Return | 0.62 | Value At Risk | -4.53 | Potential Upside | 6.23 | Standard Deviation | 4.22 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Triumph historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Triumph Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Fisher Asset Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.6 M | Point72 Asset Management, L.p. | 2024-06-30 | 1.5 M | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2024-06-30 | 1.4 M | Assenagon Asset Management Sa | 2024-09-30 | 1 M | Healthcare Of Ontario Pension Plan Trust Fund | 2024-09-30 | 998.9 K | Penn Capital Management Company Llc | 2024-09-30 | 939.4 K | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2024-09-30 | 926.9 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-06-30 | 758.7 K | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2024-06-30 | 744.5 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 11.9 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 6.9 M |
Triumph Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (48.8M) | 35.4M | 25.6M | (28.2M) | (17.5M) | (18.3M) | |
| Change In Cash | 392.7M | 104.4M | (349.0M) | (13.5M) | 165.1M | 173.4M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 56.8M | (198.3M) | (156.7M) | (72.9M) | (12.4M) | (11.8M) | |
| Depreciation | 138.2M | 93.3M | 49.6M | 35.6M | (2.7M) | (2.6M) | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 78.9M | 346.4M | 66.3M | (107.4M) | (2.7M) | (2.5M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 39.8M | 25.2M | 19.7M | 20.7M | 21.8M | 20.7M | |
| Net Income | (29.4M) | (450.9M) | (42.8M) | 89.6M | 12.2M | 12.8M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 485.5M | 589.9M | 240.9M | 227.4M | 392.5M | 412.1M | |
| Change Receivables | 5.0M | 126.3M | 2.8M | (26.4M) | (30.4M) | (28.9M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 752.9M | 153.9M | (379.9M) | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B | |
| Change To Netincome | 138.5M | 373.7M | 72.9M | (91.0M) | (81.9M) | (77.8M) | |
| Investments | 7.4M | (9.3M) | (2.1M) | (272K) | 689.9M | 724.4M |
Triumph Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Triumph or Aerospace & Defense sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Triumph's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Triumph stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Triumph Volatility Alert
Triumph Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.12 and Jensen Alpha of 0.47. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Triumph's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Triumph's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Triumph Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Triumph's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Triumph's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Triumph and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Triumph or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Triumph's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triumph by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Triumph to competition |
| Fundamentals | Triumph | Peer Average |
| Return On Asset | 0.0498 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.44 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.12 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2.34 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 77.35 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.14 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 97.86 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 8.72 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | (23.51) X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.22 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.19 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 386.88 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 125.3 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 12.21 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 227.4 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.61 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.09 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 319.20 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.25 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (1.23) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 9.44 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 7.75 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.16) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.20 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 18.48 | |
| Number Of Employees | 4.53 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.49 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.48 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.69 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (695.17 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 583.11 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 1.74 B | 9.34 B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.14 B | 7.9 B |
Note: Acquisition by Allen Patrick E of 10324 shares of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Triumph Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Triumph . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 22686.2 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2787 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.21 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.17 |
About Triumph Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Triumph Group? Buying financial instruments such as Triumph Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Triumph Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Earnings Share (0.16) | Revenue Per Share 15.722 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 | Return On Assets 0.0498 |
The market value of Triumph Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.