Ambac Financial Group Volatility
| AMBCDelisted Stock | USD 8.98 0.21 2.39% |
Ambac Financial appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Ambac Financial Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By analyzing Ambac Financial's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.69% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Ambac Financial's risk adjusted performance of 0.1093, and Mean Deviation of 3.24 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Sharpe Ratio = 0.1373
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Based on monthly moving average Ambac Financial is performing at about 10% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Ambac Financial by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to Ambac Financial's volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Ambac Financial Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Ambac daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Ambac's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Ambac Financial volatility.
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Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Ambac Financial can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game as hey may decide to buy additional stocks of Ambac Financial at lower prices to lower their average cost per share. Similarly, when the prices of Ambac Financial's stock rise, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Main indicators related to Ambac Financial's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta 0.7 | Alpha 0.65 | Risk 5.03 | Sharpe Ratio 0.14 | Expected Return 0.69 |
Moving against Ambac Stock
Ambac Financial Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Ambac Financial's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Ambac stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Ambac stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Ambac Financial's beta of 0.7 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Ambac Financial stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Ambac Financial Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.13 and Jensen Alpha of 0.65. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ambac Financial's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ambac Financial's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Ambac Financial Group Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Ambac Financial correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Ambac Financial Volatility and Downside Risk
Ambac standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Ambac Financial Group Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Ambac Financial delisted stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Ambac Financial's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Ambac Financial's stock to predict their future moves. A delisted stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile delisted stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Ambac Financial's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of delisted stock volatility measures Ambac Financial's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Ambac Financial's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Ambac Financial's current market price. This means that the delisted stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Ambac Financial's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
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Ambac Financial Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ambac Financial has a beta of 0.6965 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ambac Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ambac Financial Group will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ambac Financial or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ambac Financial's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ambac delisted stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Predicted Return Density |
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What Drives an Ambac Financial Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a delisted stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract investor attention to the company. This positive attention may impact the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Ambac Financial Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Ambac Financial is 728.28. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 25.34 and standard deviation of 5.03. The mean deviation of Ambac Financial Group is currently at 3.24. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.73
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Ambac Financial Stock Return Volatility
Ambac Financial historical daily return volatility represents how much of Ambac Financial delisted stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 5.0341% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7542% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
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Related Correlations Analysis
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
There is a big difference between Ambac Stock performing well and Ambac Financial Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze Ambac Financial's multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBI | 1.85 | (0.19) | 0.00 | (0.42) | 0.00 | 3.89 | 16.36 | |||
| RM | 1.88 | (0.13) | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 3.78 | 10.09 | |||
| GBLI | 1.04 | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.06 | 1.12 | 2.91 | 5.97 | |||
| BSRR | 1.41 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.95 | 4.74 | 9.04 | |||
| TWFG | 1.55 | 0.00 | (0.01) | 0.05 | 2.07 | 3.42 | 11.27 | |||
| FRBA | 1.25 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 1.36 | 3.29 | 8.53 | |||
| GCBC | 1.76 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 1.68 | 4.59 | 10.25 | |||
| BRBS | 1.26 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.00 | 2.49 | 7.68 | |||
| VBNK | 1.17 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 2.90 | 13.41 | |||
| CWBC | 1.06 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.84 | 3.41 | 7.93 |
About Ambac Financial Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Ambac Financial or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Ambac Financial may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Ambac's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Ambac Financial and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Ambac Financial fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.Ambac Financial Group, Inc., a financial services holding company, provides financial guarantees in the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Australia, France, and Internationally. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Ambac Financial operates under InsuranceSpecialty classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 132 people.
Ambac Financial's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Ambac Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Ambac Financial's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Ambac Financial's volatility to invest better
Higher Ambac Financial's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Ambac Financial Group stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Ambac Financial Group stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Ambac Financial Group investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Ambac Financial's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Ambac Financial's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Ambac Financial Investment Opportunity
Ambac Financial Group has a volatility of 5.03 and is 6.71 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 45 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Ambac Financial. You can use Ambac Financial Group to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of Ambac Financial to be traded at $10.78 in 90 days.Significant diversification
The correlation between Ambac Financial Group and DJI is 0.06 (i.e., Significant diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Ambac Financial Group and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Ambac Financial Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ambac Financial's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ambac Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Ambac Financial stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1093 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.9881 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 728.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar delisted stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ambac Financial Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Ambac Financial as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Ambac Financial's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Ambac Financial's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Ambac Financial Group.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Other Consideration for investing in Ambac Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Ambac Financial Group check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Ambac Financial's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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