Cogent Biosciences Stock Volatility
| COGT Stock | USD 36.73 0.10 0.27% |
Sharpe Ratio = 0.0043
| Leading Returns | Top Quartile | |||
| Strong | ||||
| Moderate | ||||
| Modest | ||||
| Cash | Low | Moderate | Elevated | High |
| Below Benchmark | COGT |
Latest disclosures for Cogent Biosciences show a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.01%, a Risk of 2.69, and a Total Risk Alpha of -0.07. Moving average data indicates the stock is not operating at maximum efficiency.
Key indicators related to Cogent Biosciences' volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Key risk metrics for Cogent Biosciences (3 Months):
Beta 1.71 | Alpha -0.06 | Risk 2.69 | Sharpe Ratio 0 | Expected Return 0.01 |
Moving together with Cogent Stock
Moving Against Cogent Stock
Sensitivity To Market
The beta coefficient of 1.71 for Cogent Biosciences measures how its returns respond to broader market changes. In regression terms, beta captures the slope between asset returns and index returns. Historical volatility is currently near 2.69%. This analysis separates observed movement from interpretation for Cogent Biosciences. Standard deviation (2.8%) and downside deviation (0.0%) describe the range without implying direction. Options markets imply a forward-looking volatility estimate near 144.0%. This suggests the market is pricing in the possibility of wider future price swings compared to recent historical dispersion. Equity volatility compresses in calm markets and expands quickly when uncertainty increases. Stock dispersion changes materially during earnings seasons and macro data releases.
3 Months Beta |Cogent Biosciences Demand TrendCurrent 90-day Cogent Biosciences correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Downside Risk
Cogent standard deviation over the selected horizon reflects the magnitude of daily price swings relative to the historical average. A rising standard deviation for Cogent over successive periods signals increasing price uncertainty.
Standard Deviation | 2.69 |
Understanding the asymmetry between upside and downside risk is critical for Cogent Biosciences analysis. Total price dispersion includes upside, while downside deviation captures only loss risk in Cogent Biosciences' returns. Latest disclosures for Cogent Biosciences show a Maximum Drawdown of 17.20.
Cogent Put Option Risk Profile Based on 2026-05-15 Contracts
Latest disclosures for Cogent Biosciences show an Option Implied Volatility of 1.44 and an Option Max Pain Price of 37. A put option on Cogent Biosciences gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell Cogent Biosciences shares at a predetermined strike. The put holder retains the right to sell a fixed amount of Cogent Stock at the agreed strike within the option's life.
Cogent Biosciences' PUT expiring on 2026-06-18
Profit |
| Cogent Biosciences Price At Expiration |
Current Cogent Biosciences Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
| Put | COGT260515P00003000 | -0.005143 | 3.09E-4 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.25 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00006000 | -0.011712 | 8.06E-4 | 3 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.45 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00007000 | -0.013092 | 9.72E-4 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.45 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00008000 | -0.014471 | 0.001151 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.45 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00011000 | -0.023689 | 0.002037 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.65 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00012000 | -0.025625 | 0.002333 | 6 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.65 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00013000 | -0.030178 | 0.002775 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.75 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00014000 | -0.035022 | 0.003261 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 0.85 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00015000 | -0.046956 | 0.004019 | 40 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 1.25 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00018000 | -0.057849 | 0.005769 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 1.25 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | COGT260515P00019000 | -0.061929 | 0.0065 | 1 | 2026-05-15 | 0.0 - 1.25 | 0.0 | View |
Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of Cogent Biosciences stock returns over a given period of time. Volatility measures how much Cogent Biosciences' stock price deviates from its average over a period.
Transformation |
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. The Average Price transformation calculates the mean of Cogent Biosciences's open, high, low, and close for each trading period. By incorporating all four price components equally, it provides a balanced representation of each period's trading activity. Compared to using the closing price alone, the average price reduces the influence of end-of-day positioning and can serve as a smoother input for other technical indicators.
Projected Return Density Against Market
Given a 90-day horizon, Cogent Biosciences has a beta of 1.7056 suggesting when the benchmark rises, COGT tends to outperform it on average. However, when benchmark returns turn negative, Cogent Biosciences tends to underperform.Cogent Biosciences carries exposure to broad market movements as well as company or sector-specific developments. While portfolio diversification can reduce asset-level risk, systematic volatility cannot be avoided. Standard deviation and beta quantify this exposure. Latest disclosures for Cogent Biosciences show a Mean Deviation of 2.00, an Option Implied Volatility of 1.44, and a Standard Deviation of 2.80.
Predicted Return Distribution |
| Density |
What Drives Cogent Biosciences' Price Volatility?
Industry Dynamics
Competitive pressure, margin shifts, or structural changes in the Biotechnology sector can alter Cogent Biosciences' day-to-day volatility profile.Political and Economic Environment
Broad market tone, policy uncertainty, and recession or expansion signals shape volatility conditions for Cogent Biosciences.Cogent Biosciences' Company-Specific Factors
Unexpected business updates, leadership changes, or legal outcomes can drive outsized moves in Cogent Biosciences' stock.Stock Risk Measures
Given a 90-day horizon, the coefficient of variation of Cogent Biosciences is 23015.66. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 7.22 and standard deviation of 2.69. The mean deviation of Cogent Biosciences is currently at 1.89. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.95
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0575 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0182 |
Stock Return Volatility
Volatility for Cogent Biosciences quantifies the day-to-day dispersion of stock returns around their historical average. The firm carries 2.6863% return volatility across the 90-day horizon. As a benchmark, Dow Jones Industrial reported 0.9693% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Related Correlations Analysis
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Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
| High negative correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
Headline performance for Cogent Stock may not fully reflect how the business compares across its competitive set. Peer-relative risk metrics add context on drawdown behavior, consistency, and return quality. These indicators are quantitative in nature and measure volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCUS | 3.22 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 3.60 | 7.11 | 24.57 | |||
| IBRX | 5.66 | 0.54 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 6.57 | 14.55 | 62.92 | |||
| DNLI | 2.84 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 6.19 | 20.38 | |||
| ETNB | 2.99 | 1.05 | 0.36 | -1.82 | 1.83 | 3.02 | 86.02 | |||
| GLPG | 1.27 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 9.71 | |||
| LQDA | 2.83 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 16.89 | |||
| OCUL | 3.79 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 4.98 | 10.67 | 29.45 | |||
| AGIO | 2.29 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 4.43 | 3.86 | 37.22 | |||
| VRDN | 2.88 | -1.22 | 0.00 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 4.62 | 37.09 | |||
| RXRX | 2.94 | -0.38 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 6.27 | 19.86 |
Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology
Standard deviation for Cogent Biosciences measures how widely returns scatter around their average over a given period. Higher dispersion implies a wider range of plausible outcomes for any given holding period. Cogent Biosciences has a market cap of 6.26 billion, ROE of -73.7%.
Cogent Biosciences data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Sell-side coverage, where present, supplements the data shown. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Volatility Profile Summary
Recent data suggests that Cogent Biosciences is more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial by approximately 2.77x over the selected horizon. This differential reflects the relative dispersion of returns and frames how the asset responds to broader market conditions. Observed price behavior indicates modest directional movement within the current volatility regime. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 24% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis. This positioning reflects relative dispersion compared to peers rather than extreme instability.Cogent Biosciences with characteristics aligned to broad market upside participation. This short-horizon analysis focuses on what the latest move may imply for immediate market context. It is intended to separate routine noise from more speculative bursts in price action. a normal upward fluctuation. Return distributions derived from historical modeling outline a range of potential outcomes over the selected 90-day horizon. View Cogent Biosciences probability analysis.
Poor diversification
Cogent Biosciences currently posts a 0.62 correlation with Dow Jones, indicating a Poor diversification relationship for the active sample. Lower overlap tends to improve diversification, while higher overlap means both positions carry similar risk.
Additional Risk Indicators
Looking at additional risk metrics for Cogent Biosciences frames how the position may behave under different market and portfolio conditions. The practical goal is to identify how much risk is being accepted and whether that risk still fits the thesis.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.0041 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.01 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | -8,815 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.81 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.02 |
Cogent Biosciences Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading with Cogent Biosciences hedges company-specific exposure by balancing a long view with an offsetting position. A disciplined pair structure still requires monitoring because correlation weakens when market regimes change.
Risk reduction through pair trading is real but has limits - not every type of exposure can be offset by a second leg. Cogent Biosciences' exposure to overall market risk stays intact regardless of pairing. The value of a second leg lies in reducing Cogent Biosciences' idiosyncratic risk - the part that comes from company-level events rather than macro conditions.