Cogent Biosciences Stock Performance

COGT Stock

USD 36.63 0.84 2.35%

Below is a summary of Cogent Biosciences' return history alongside the standard risk-adjusted performance metrics. The stock's expected return across the 3 months window is -0.0208%.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weak

Strong

Risk-adjusted performance for Cogent Biosciences has been negative over the last 90 trading days, reflecting weak return efficiency. The score is most useful when evaluated together with trend stability and downside risk metrics. Cogent Biosciences has generated minimal risk-adjusted returns over the measured period, suggesting limited compensation for volatility. Learn More

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 3,796 in Cogent Biosciences on February 2, 2026 and sold it today you would have lost $ 133.00 from holding Cogent Biosciences or given up 3.5% of portfolio value over 90 days. Cogent Biosciences does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 2.6741% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, Cogent exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 76% of comparable stocks, and COGT has trailed 99% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.

Expected Return

Risk

This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given a 90-day horizon, COGT has been underperforming the market. Compounding this underperformance, COGT is 2.81 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It converts risk into return at a rate of about -0.01%. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.01% per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Mean reversion in Cogent Stock pricing reflects the documented tendency for stocks to gravitate toward equilibrium. While this pattern holds broadly, certain stocks can remain mispriced for extended periods before correction.

Current Price	Horizon	Target Price	Odds moving above the current price in 90 days
36.63	90 days	36.63	about 51.26 %

Using a normal distribution model, the likelihood of Cogent Biosciences moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 51.26 %. Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (The curve shows where outcomes have been clustering for Cogent Stock over the next 90 days). The curve width gives a practical read on how much uncertainty surrounds Cogent Stock over this horizon.

Given a 90-day horizon, the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 suggesting when the benchmark rises, COGT tends to outperform it on average. However, when benchmark returns turn negative, Cogent Biosciences tends to underperform. Additionally, Cogent Biosciences has a negative alpha, implying that risk has not been adequately compensated by returns. COGT is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.

Cogent Biosciences Price Density

Price

Predictive Modules for Cogent Biosciences

Forecasting Cogent Biosciences requires combining quantitative signals with evolving sentiment and fundamental trends. Each approach has strengths and limitations, making diversified forecasting strategies especially important for Cogent Biosciences.

Mean reversion is the tendency of Cogent Biosciences' price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Some analysts monitor this tendency by comparing Cogent Biosciences' price extremes to fundamental value.

Sentiment

Range

Low	Sentiment	High
33.96	36.63	39.30

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Intrinsic	High
33.98	36.65	39.32

Details

Naive

Forecast

Low	Next	High
33.00	35.67	38.35

Details

Bollinger

Band Projection (param)

Lower	Middle Band	Upper
35.01	36.43	37.86

Details

Cogent Biosciences is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where Cogent Biosciences leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over the past two decades, the stock market has experienced significant volatility affecting Cogent Biosciences. Cogent Biosciences has seen dramatic price moves that have reshaped risk profiles for its holders.

α	Alpha over Dow Jones	-0.0265	Details
β	Beta against Dow Jones	1.61	Details
σ	Overall volatility	1.27	Details
Ir	Information ratio	-0.0105	Details

Investor Alerts and Insights

Targeted alerts for Cogent Biosciences provide the responsiveness needed to evaluate market conditions and assess potential outcomes. These notifications for Cogent Biosciences help investors make timely decisions in response to significant stock events.

	Cogent Biosciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	Net Loss for the year was -$328.94 million with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of -$121.63 million.
	Cogent Biosciences currently holds about $325.56 million in cash as of latest reporting with -$264.44 million of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.95.

Price Density Drivers

Price movements in Cogent Biosciences are influenced by the balance of buyer and seller positioning dynamics. Monitoring key indicators provides context for understanding when price movements are fundamental versus tactical.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	67.6 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	900.76 million

Cogent Biosciences Fundamentals Growth

The market price of Cogent Stock is shaped by investors' expectations for Cogent Biosciences' financial performance. Revenue and earnings trends, operating margins, and capital structure decisions all play a role in Cogent Stock pricing.

	Current Valuation	5.69 B
	Shares Outstanding	170.8 M
	Earnings Per Share	-2.16 X

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Cogent Biosciences risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Sharpe and Sortino ratios frame return efficiency relative to total and downside risk. Cogent Biosciences shows ROE of -73.7%, ROA of -32.93% (TTM).

Cogent Biosciences inputs come from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent reporting framework. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board