Megapower Makmur (Indonesia) Volatility
| MPOW Stock | IDR 80.00 3.00 3.61% |
Megapower Makmur appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Megapower Makmur TBK has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0379, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0379% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Megapower Makmur, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Megapower Makmur's Downside Deviation of 4.6, risk adjusted performance of 0.0376, and Mean Deviation of 4.3 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to Megapower Makmur's volatility include:
240 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 240 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Megapower Makmur Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Megapower daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Megapower's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Megapower Makmur volatility.
Megapower |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Megapower Makmur at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Megapower stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes.
Moving against Megapower Stock
| 0.85 | TKIM | Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | INKP | Indah Kiat Pulp | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | GGRM | Gudang Garam Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | BMRI | Bank Mandiri Persero | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | MCAS | M Cash Integrasi | PairCorr |
Megapower Makmur Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Megapower Makmur's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Megapower stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Megapower stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Megapower Makmur's beta of -2.39 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Megapower Makmur stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Megapower Makmur TBK exhibits above-average semi-deviation for your current time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Megapower Makmur's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Megapower Makmur's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Megapower Makmur TBK Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Megapower Makmur correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Megapower Beta |
Megapower standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 5.84 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Megapower Makmur's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Megapower Makmur's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in megapower stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Megapower Makmur.
Megapower Makmur TBK Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Megapower Makmur stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Megapower Makmur's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Megapower Makmur's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Megapower Makmur's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Megapower Makmur's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Megapower Makmur's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Megapower Makmur's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Megapower Makmur's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Megapower Makmur TBK Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Megapower Makmur Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Megapower Makmur TBK has a beta of -2.3873 . This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Megapower Makmur TBK are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Megapower Makmur is expected to outperform its benchmark.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Megapower Makmur or Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Megapower Makmur's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Megapower stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Megapower Makmur TBK has an alpha of 0.4866, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Megapower Makmur Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Megapower Makmur Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Megapower Makmur is 2640.78. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 34.07 and standard deviation of 5.84. The mean deviation of Megapower Makmur TBK is currently at 4.15. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.76
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Megapower Makmur Stock Return Volatility
Megapower Makmur historical daily return volatility represents how much of Megapower Makmur stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company accepts 5.837% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7522% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Megapower Makmur Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Megapower Makmur or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Megapower Makmur may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Megapower's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Megapower Makmur and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Megapower Makmur fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Megapower Makmur's volatility to invest better
Higher Megapower Makmur's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Megapower Makmur TBK stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Megapower Makmur TBK stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Megapower Makmur TBK investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Megapower Makmur's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Megapower Makmur's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Megapower Makmur Investment Opportunity
Megapower Makmur TBK has a volatility of 5.84 and is 7.79 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 51 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Megapower Makmur. You can use Megapower Makmur TBK to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of Megapower Makmur to be traded at 76.8 in 90 days.Very good diversification
The correlation between Megapower Makmur TBK and DJI is -0.31 (i.e., Very good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Megapower Makmur TBK and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Megapower Makmur Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Megapower Makmur's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Megapower Makmur's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Megapower Makmur stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0376 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.05 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 2647.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Megapower Makmur Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Megapower Makmur as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Megapower Makmur's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Megapower Makmur's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Megapower Makmur TBK.
Other Information on Investing in Megapower Stock
Megapower Makmur financial ratios help investors to determine whether Megapower Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Megapower with respect to the benefits of owning Megapower Makmur security.