TFS FINANCIAL (Germany) Volatility
| PWT Stock | EUR 13.50 0.30 2.17% |
TFS FINANCIAL appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. TFS FINANCIAL owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.12, which indicates the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for TFS FINANCIAL, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review TFS FINANCIAL's risk adjusted performance of 0.0952, and Coefficient Of Variation of 858.55 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to TFS FINANCIAL's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
TFS FINANCIAL Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of TFS daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use TFS's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of TFS FINANCIAL volatility.
TFS |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as TFS FINANCIAL can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game as hey may decide to buy additional stocks of TFS FINANCIAL at lower prices to lower their average cost per share. Similarly, when the prices of TFS FINANCIAL's stock rise, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities.
Moving together with TFS Stock
| 0.65 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | MSF | Microsoft | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | MSF | Microsoft | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | MSF | Microsoft | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | MSF | Microsoft | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | MSF | Microsoft | PairCorr |
Moving against TFS Stock
| 0.72 | MTO | METTLER TOLEDO INTL | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | MTO | METTLER TOLEDO INTL | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | MTO | Mitie Group PLC | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | CXT | Carmat SA | PairCorr |
TFS FINANCIAL Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
TFS FINANCIAL's beta coefficient measures the volatility of TFS stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents TFS stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, TFS FINANCIAL's beta of 0.2 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk TFS FINANCIAL stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. TFS FINANCIAL has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.54 and kurtosis of 6.71. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure TFS FINANCIAL's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact TFS FINANCIAL's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze TFS FINANCIAL Demand TrendCheck current 90 days TFS FINANCIAL correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)TFS Beta |
TFS standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.91 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by TFS FINANCIAL's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of TFS FINANCIAL's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in tfs stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in TFS FINANCIAL.
TFS FINANCIAL Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which TFS FINANCIAL stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with TFS FINANCIAL's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of TFS FINANCIAL's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of TFS FINANCIAL's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures TFS FINANCIAL's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict TFS FINANCIAL's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for TFS FINANCIAL's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on TFS FINANCIAL's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. TFS FINANCIAL Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
TFS FINANCIAL Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TFS FINANCIAL has a beta of 0.1968 indicating as returns on the market go up, TFS FINANCIAL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding TFS FINANCIAL will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to TFS FINANCIAL or Other sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that TFS FINANCIAL's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a TFS stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
TFS FINANCIAL has an alpha of 0.1874, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a TFS FINANCIAL Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.TFS FINANCIAL Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of TFS FINANCIAL is 843.25. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 3.66 and standard deviation of 1.91. The mean deviation of TFS FINANCIAL is currently at 1.32. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.77
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
TFS FINANCIAL Stock Return Volatility
TFS FINANCIAL historical daily return volatility represents how much of TFS FINANCIAL stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm assumes 1.9129% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7777% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About TFS FINANCIAL Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of TFS FINANCIAL or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of TFS FINANCIAL may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to TFS's beta indicator, it measures the risk of TFS FINANCIAL and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of TFS FINANCIAL fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize TFS FINANCIAL's volatility to invest better
Higher TFS FINANCIAL's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of TFS FINANCIAL stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. TFS FINANCIAL stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of TFS FINANCIAL investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in TFS FINANCIAL's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of TFS FINANCIAL's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
TFS FINANCIAL Investment Opportunity
TFS FINANCIAL has a volatility of 1.91 and is 2.45 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of TFS FINANCIAL is lower than 17 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use TFS FINANCIAL to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of TFS FINANCIAL to be traded at €12.96 in 90 days.Significant diversification
The correlation between TFS FINANCIAL and DJI is 0.08 (i.e., Significant diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding TFS FINANCIAL and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
TFS FINANCIAL Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of TFS FINANCIAL's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TFS FINANCIAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of TFS FINANCIAL stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0952 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 1.08 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 858.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
TFS FINANCIAL Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against TFS FINANCIAL as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. TFS FINANCIAL's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, TFS FINANCIAL's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to TFS FINANCIAL.
Complementary Tools for TFS Stock analysis
When running TFS FINANCIAL's price analysis, check to measure TFS FINANCIAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TFS FINANCIAL is operating at the current time. Most of TFS FINANCIAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TFS FINANCIAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TFS FINANCIAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TFS FINANCIAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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